Interview with Marcel De Haas, Senior Research Fellow on security policy, Netherlands Institute of International Relations Clingendael,The Hague.
Q: What can you, as the recognized specialist on security in the post-Soviet area, overall, and CSTO, in particular, say about President Medvedev’s statements about Russia’s intention to fulfill their obligations within the framework of this organization in the case Azerbaijan starts new war for Karabakh with Armenia?
A: I suppose that Medvedev’s visit and especially the agreement to extend strategic military cooperation between Russia and Armenia are important signs. CSTO and NATO members have an agreement that an attack on one member means an attack on all members. The possibility of this assistance is reflected in the new military doctrine of Russia. Therefore, Azerbaijan’s attack on Armenia for liberation of Nagorno Karabakh will mean that under military agreements with Armenia and within the framework of CSTO must attack Azerbaijan like in case with Georgia. Therefore, I think the Armenian-Russian agreement is an open warning to Azerbaijan: “Do not think about the return of Karabakh by way of force, otherwise, you will be punished”.
Q: But Azerbaijan is not going to attack Armenia, it just does not liberation of its lands…
A: You should have known the sad experience of Georgia, which was also going to restore its territorial integrity within the UN-recognized borders. According to the international law, despite recognition of their independence by Russia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia are still considered the Georgian territory. And Georgia’s attack on North Ossetia was justified in terms of international law. However, along with this, the Georgian servicemen attacked the so-called Russian peacekeepers and this has become a ground for Russia to interfere with the conflict.
Q: But there are no Russian peacekeepers in the Karabakh conflict area…
A: Yes, therefore, the situation differs a little. Georgia intended to restore the order in its territory and was subjected to Russia’s aggression. In case with Nagorno Karabakh we should not forget recognition of independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia by Russia. Though who else has recognized these territorial formations? Few developing countries and Hamas terror organization. However, Nagorno Karabakh is not recognized by anyone. Even by Russia.
Q: Even Armenia…
A: Yes, and this territory formally belongs to Azerbaijan. But the question is: how will Russia behavea, if Azerbaijan decides to liberate its occupied land? Even if we speak about the attack not on the Armenian government but the Armenian forces. And here there is a question about the possible behavior of Russia. Yes, we can speak about the right to free one’s own land, but we should not forget about the Georgian precedent. I would like to stress again that the Armenian-Russian agreement on strengthening military-political cooperation is an open warning to Azerbaijan, which has been strengthening its military capabilities in the recent years.
Q: You are speaking of the Georgian precedent, but the relations between Azerbaijan and Russia and personally the presidents of the two countries are developing favorably, which is impossible to say about Russia’s attitude to Georgia and its president.
A: Here we must talk about the different levels of interest. It is quite clear that there is a great economic, especially energy interest in the Azerbaijani-Russian cooperation. Undoubtedly, Russia is fully aware of the economic and energy importance of Azerbaijan for the entire region and even more so - for the West. That is why Russia is trying all sorts of ways to prevent Azerbaijan’s rapprochement with the West in the energy sector. Therefore, Russia is interested in long-term oil contracts with Azerbaijan. In other words, the bilateral good-neighborly relations are based on power. If Azerbaijan, like Georgia did not have the energy, it would have ended up in the same position. Therefore, Russia is not quite interested in war with Azerbaijan.
On the other hand, there is the CSTO, which includes Armenia. Russia, supporting Armenia, played a key role in the Karabakh conflict. But this, I stress, occurred prior to the time when energy gained current importance. I want to emphasize that energy as a political factor is very important for Russia, and is perhaps even more important than any type of document on security and statements from Medvedev, Putin and Lavrov.
So, I think that the political and energy cooperation between Russia and Azerbaijan is more important than the political-military alliance between Russia and Armenia. Anyway, Russia has dual interests here.
U.U.
News.Az
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