Interview with Alexander Sotnichenko, lecturer at St Petersburg State University's International Relations Faculty.
Q: Do you think forums such as the recent expert symposium in Baku promote a better understanding of the Karabakh conflict and the prospects for its resolution?
A: Yes, I think such forums do not only promote understanding of the problem and attract attention to it but also allow experts to share ideas about creating peace in the South Caucasus. These events are also intended to show Azerbaijan’s position on solution of the problem. I think the conference should become an annual event. It is also desirable to hold such a forum in a neutral area, in Russia or Europe, for example, in order to allow for direct dialogue between Armenians and Azerbaijanis. For example, it would be good to hold a conference to accompany a meeting of the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, as has been done in Turkey and is planned in Russia.
Q: Do the Armenians of Karabakh have the right to seek a repetition of the precedents of Kosovo, Abkhazia and South Ossetia?
A: These precedents give Armenia serious grounds to recognize the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh. However, the precedents you mentioned became possible only with the support of global actors in international relations.
Currently, Russia, Europe, the United States or other actors would not benefit from recognition of the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh, so this should not be expected from them in the near future.
Q: Russia and President Medvedev personally have recently been active in organizing dialogue between Baku and Yerevan. The next meeting of the three presidents is to take place in Astrakhan today. How effective is this format of negotiations?
A: This format will turn out to be really effective only if Russia makes serious proposals for a conflict settlement. There is a need for a road map, for a phased resolution of the plan, which would partially satisfy all the regional powers and also have the necessary resources. Anyway, the meetings between leaders help share views about the conflict and form a new position for each side on the issue.
Q: The Armenian parliament periodically raises the possible recognition of the independence of Karabakh by Yerevan. Is this possibility serious and will other countries support it? What would be the implications?
A: The recognition of the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh is not among the main tasks of the Armenian leadership, since this may seriously frustrate Yerevan's existing international contacts with its biggest partners. Armenia is too dependent on Russia, the United States and Europe to take such radical steps. However, provocation by Azerbaijan to start hostilities in the region may change Armenia’s position, which may present the Azerbaijani side as the aggressor and launch an information campaign for international pressure on Azerbaijan and, probably, the recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh’s independence.
Q: Do you think a new war for Karabakh is realistic and what might Russia do in this case?
A: Russia and Armenia currently favour preservation of the status quo in the South Caucasus, since they have no real program for the conflict settlement. War may start after a series of provocations on the border. Azerbaijan exceeds Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh in the number and quality of arms, but Yerevan and the Armenian diaspora abroad have great opportunities for psychological warfare. In this sense, the Armenian side has the advantage, since the outcome of the potential conflict is uncertain. Russia will hardly interfere in the conflict, however, any outcome will have a negative impact on Russia’s image in the world. Therefore, Moscow in cooperation with regional powers – Turkey and Iran – needs to work out a complete strategy for the peaceful resolution of the conflict.
Alexander Sotnichenko has the candidate degree in historical sciences, lectures at St Petersburg State University's International Relations Faculty and is a leading analyst at the St Petersburg Centre for the Modern Middle East.
W.W.
News.Az
| < Prev | Next > |
|---|
