Interview with Sergey Markov, deputy chairman of the Russian Duma's committee for public associations and religious organizations.
Q: Can the declaration of the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia, adopted with Russian mediation, be considered an attempt to neutralize the West and in particular other co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group - the United States and France - who are going to propose new initiatives on the Karabakh settlement at the OSCE summit in Astana?
A: I do not think that western countries and Russia are competing against each other on resolution of the Karabakh conflict. If anything, they are competing to avoid responsibility for escalation of the conflict.
At the same time, it should be noted that all mediators in the Karabakh conflict lack realistic plans for a settlement. For example, for some of those mediators Armenia is a strategic, geopolitical ally. This is, in turn, is connected with the high role of the Armenian diaspora in the United States, Russia and France.
On the other hand, for the same mediators Azerbaijan is a real geoeconomic partner. Azerbaijan is economically more developed, it is a powerful energy country.
Q: What causes the difficulties in resolution of the Karabakh conflict?
A: The main difficulty in the resolution of the Karabakh conflict is that no one can settle the basic principle there - the principle of territorial integrity versus the rights of nations to self-determination.
On the one hand, 20 years ago, the Karabakh conflict was settled through war in Armenia's favour, but on the other hand, Azerbaijan has been consolidating since that time. However, it is clear that Azerbaijan’s attempt to use force will lead to a military and political conflict which would inevitably undermine the economic foundation of Azerbaijan’s consolidation.
Q: What are the approaches of the conflict parties to resolution of the Karabakh conflict?
A: The Azerbaijani and Armenian leaderships have different strategic plans for a Karabakh conflict settlement. For example, it seems to me that the Azerbaijani leadership does have a strategy. It lies in the achievement of domination to further settle the issue through ultimatums in the event of a crisis, rather than war. As for the Armenian leadership, I cannot discern a strategy there yet. I can say that time is working in favour of the party that has a strategy, i.e., in favour of Azerbaijan.
Q: Could Turkey become an active participant in the Karabakh settlement?
A: Turkey could certainly play a role in the Karabakh settlement. Turkey has one of the most important factors for participation in the conflict settlement - its military and political role in the region. However, I think the efforts of any country to settle the Karabakh conflict are in vain. If a dominant force had emerged, Nagorno-Karabakh and many other issues would have been resolved. For example, when Russia was the dominant force in the region, no-one attacked anyone else.
That's why conflicts in this region will remain frozen.
The mediators' guiding principle is to hold negotiations in order to have no war. Should there be any global destabilization in future, the situation may change. I think all parties are preparing for that moment. Meanwhile, a complete peace settlement, as I have already mentioned, will be possible only with the emergence of a dominant force in the region. Who will it be? Time will tell whether it will be Russia, the EU, the United States or China.
W.W.
News.Az
| < Prev | Next > |
|---|
