Interview with Alexey Vlasov, general director of Moscow State University's Post-Soviet Research Centre.
Q: Do the new agreements reached by the Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders, with President Medvedev’s mediation, give grounds for optimism?
A: Probably, there are grounds for optimism. First, this is already the third meeting of the presidents in the trilateral format this year. This means Russia is managing to maintain the necessary dynamic in the negotiating process on a Karabakh settlement. Second, some documents, even very general ones, saying that Baku and Yerevan are ready to execute the Madrid principles, will be submitted at the OSCE summit to be held in Astana on 1-2 December this year.
Q: What principles will be reflected in this document?
A: The document may be an adapted version or in a classic form. Anyway, it is possible to say in advance that the Madrid principles will be the basis of the further negotiating process on the Karabakh settlement.
Q: What will be the impact of the presidents' joint statement on the return of prisoners of war and the bodies of the deceased?
A: This statement is the first remarkable event. For some, this issue is important personally. Though, probably, the exchange of prisoners and bodies of the deceased is not a great step in geopolitical terms, it is possible to say that it will play a positive role in public opinion both in Azerbaijan and Armenia. In the purely humane sense, there is nothing more important than this. Therefore, all parties should be a little optimistic. The current positive tendency should be continued into 2011 in the hope that this year will become decisive in resolution of the Karabakh conflict.
Q: Is a breakthrough on Karabakh to be expected at the OSCE summit in Astana?
A: I would not call it a breakthrough, but a document setting dates for the implementation of a road map may be adopted, at least in the mid-term perspective.
Otherwise, it would be senseless to discuss this issue at the OSCE summit in Astana. The Astrakhan meeting has been held a month before the OSCE summit to promote the adoption of a document. At least if we do not see any progress in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, active talks are held on Karabakh.
U.U.
News.Az
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