Interview with Dr. Dale D. Murphy, Senior Research Fellow at the Dubai School of Government.
Q: Russia has been playing a very active role in the South Caucasus. And why did the US weake its activity here? Does it result from Russian-Georgian war in 2008 or there are some other reasons?
A: This is not my area of expertise. It seems the US recognizes a certain 'sphere of influence' of Russia, in the former Soviet Republics. And the US is also stretched, with wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and low-level conflicts elsewhere.
Q: Is it possible for Azerbaijan to go successfully towards European and Euro-Atlantic integration having such neighbors as Russia and Iran?
A: In terms of economic, social and technological integration, absolutely. These depend on creating a legal and regulatory environment favorable to the creation and success of new businesses, and integrating into the world economy (as an export platform, or creating a niche in the value-added chain of production), as well as serving regional and local demand. Political integration can build on this techno-economic integration. But obviously it entails security and diplomacy considerations as well.
Q: Is the Karabakh problem already well-known in the West or still accepted like something distant?
A: The Nagorno-Karabakh problem is completely unknown by maybe 99% of the American public and largely unknown to much of Western Europe, unless they are from or working on this region. It is off the radar-screen of the general public (for whom it appeared only briefly in the early-1990s). There may be a vague sense of ethnic and historical complexities in the Caucuses, but that's about it. Among Western specialists who do not have personal ties to the region, most seem to indicate that the conflict is chained to the past, rather than based on competing visions of progress.
Q: Is it true that good relations between Azerbaijan and Russia would prevent a new Russian military invasion in the South Caucasus (as it was in August 2008) if it be a new war between Azerbaijan and Armenia?
A: No one expects a new war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, so that's quite a hypothetical stretch. To speculate on this scenario would require a much more detailed set of circumstances leading up to it. Historically, the use of armed force to determine borders usually provokes an armed response, sooner or later. I'm not an expert on Russian security strategy in the Caucusus, so can't comment on their intentions.
Q: How would you assess the role of Azerbaijan in the global energy security problem?
A: Azerbaijan plays a contributing role in global energy security, but to be candid, with just over one percent of natural gas proven reserves (maybe 1.2%) and less than one percent of proven global proven oil reserves (maybe 0.53%), its role is more regional than global. It has a regional role in diversifying supply lines, with the BTC and other pipelines. Oil and gas have been the backbone of the Azerbaijan economy for a century, and will continue this domestic role for decades to come. The challenge for Azerbaijan is to continually leverage this resource into both higher value-added activities and completely unrelated (diversified) businesses. Over the past five years, Azerbaijan has greatly improved its business climate for new startups, rising from 97 to 33 in 2008, which was a promising sign, although it's slipped a few places to 38 by 2010. (On the Global Competitiveness Index, it was 69th in 2008-9, rose to 51st in 2009-10, and has fallen slightly to 57th in the latest 2010-11 report.)
W.W.
News.Az
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