Interview with Kirill Tanayev, general director of the Effective Policy Foundation.
Q: The third summit of the heads of the Caspian littoral states to discuss the legal status of the Caspian Sea and security cooperation is being held in Baku on 18 November. Do you think the summit will be affected by the cooling in relations between Iran and Russia, after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad accused Moscow of betrayal over the supply of S-300s to Tehran?
A: First of all, I would separate political rhetoric and issues of strategic relations between countries. It is better to see the significant and essential differences between the public statements of politicians and relations between presidents, the problems they raise and discuss in a bilateral format, especially since the summit will discuss issues of importance to the entire region, to all Caspian states. Therefore, it's better not to hurry to make hasty assessments and forecasts.
Q: The first summit of heads of OSCE member-states in 11 years will be held in December in Astana. The OSCE Minsk Group has been dealing with the resolution of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh for many years. Should we expect a breakthrough on this in Astana?
A: It is not ruled out that important initiatives and statements on the Karabakh conflict will be voiced at the OSCE summit in Astana. Anyway, Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev and the OSCE Minsk Group have done a great deal on this recently. There is definite expectation.
At the same time, I think the expectation of a "breakthrough", which is perceived differently in Azerbaijan and Armenia, is a little optimistic. I do not expect a rapid and simple way out of a conflict such as Nagorno-Karabakh at all. There are no simple solutions in cases where blood is still being shed.
Q: As a Minsk Group co-chair, Russia has recently been taking the initiative in settling the Karabakh conflict. Several trilateral meetings have been held in recent months involving the presidents of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia. The latest one was held in Astrakhan. Will Moscow's attempts lead to a breakthrough?
A: First of all, I would like to stress the principal importance of the continuing dialogue between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan under the mediation of Dmitriy Medvedev.I think it is of principal importance in the current situation to prevent the start of comperehensive military action in the conflict area. Preventing the sides from using force and encouraging dialogue is the best and most realistic strategy today. There is a need for continuous steps, however small, on the way to dialogue. And in this sense the latest meeting of the three presidents in Astrakhan has already yielded some results. I think others will also follow. I believe this action is the important foreign policy achievement of President Medvedev.
Q: What are Russia's priorities in the region in 2011? What is the role of Baku and Yerevan in Moscow's policy in the South Caucasus and beyond?
A: The priorities of 2011 hardly differ significantly from the priorities of 2010 and 2009: peace and stability in the South Caucasus; economic development and cooperation; raising trust and security between the countries. This is the principal position of Russia.
Both Azerbaijan and Armenia are countries that have not only common history with Russia. Both Azerbaijan and Armenia are strategic allies of Russia, their peoples are connected with the Russian people through great economic, educational, scientific, cultural and, finally, interpersonal relations.
Russia is interested in the prosperity of all the countries in the region and is interested in the development of mutually profitable economic, public, scientific and educational and cultural relations with them. Much has already been achieved. I think the positive dynamics in relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia with Russia will develop next year. All the conditions are in place for this.
W.W.
News.Az
| < Prev | Next > |
|---|
