Interview with US analyst on South Caucasus issues, Michael B. Bishku, Professor of Augusta State University
- The Russians are in a strong position in Abkhazia and South Ossetia as a result of their war with Georgia in 2008, while the Armenians are entrenched in positions in Nagorno-Karabakh and other occupied territories in Azerbaijan. As long as these conflicts are only regulated by ceasefire agreements, tensions may arise at any time. However, all the parties want to avoid restarting a war.
- What should be done to make the West know more about Nagorno-Karabakh? The contradiction between the principle of territorial integrity and the rights of nations to self-determination is a problem for the resolution of territorial conflicts. As an expert on international law, what do you think is the way out of the situation?
- The Armenians have a very strong lobby in the United States as well as influence in other countries with ethnic Armenian populations. Most people in the West are sympathetic to the Armenians as a result of the tragic events that took place during the First World War. Nagorno-Karabakh is off the radar screen for a large number of people in the West as combat operations ended over fifteen years ago. The Russo-Georgian War took place only two years ago and even that is becoming a distant memory to most of the public. Both conflicts have no direct impact on their lives. These disputes will only be settled when the parties involved are willing to make difficult compromises. The Israelis and Palestinians are still trying to resolve their differences after many decades. There are creative ways to end conflicts such as territorial transfers, arrangements for degrees of regional autonomy, and economic incentives, but it is up to the various parties in the South Caucasus to decide what works best for their respective situations.
- The first summit of heads of OSCE member-states in 11 years will be held in December in Astana. The OSCE Minsk Group has been dealing with the resolution of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh for many years. Should we expect a breakthrough on this in Astana?
- I would be surprised if an agreement were reached in Astana. These unresolved conflicts benefit Russia as long as full scare war is avoided. The Russians continue to have leverage over the South Caucasus republics and will do so until all the countries in the region cooperate fully with one another. Russia will continue to respect the independent status of the South Caucasus republics it still has much influence in the region and with the OSCE.
- Do you agree with the opinion that the United States have recently reduced its activeness in the region, especially after the Russian-Georgian war, and is there a chance to renew this activeness?
- The United States has resorted to quiet diplomacy as it is interested in Russian cooperation over a number of international issues. Georgia’s President Saakashvili has agreed publicly with this approach. The Americans realize that the Europeans are more reluctant to intervene directly in the affairs of the South Caucasus.
- Do you view Azerbaijan as a NATO member in the nearest perspective and how can the North Atlantic alliance promote security in the region? Can Azerbaijan and Georgia become members of the alliance with the unsettled conflicts in their territory?
- NATO made its position very clear with regard to Georgia in 2007 when it rejected that country’s application for admission; that organization will not accept countries for membership involved in ongoing conflicts and Azerbaijan’s situation with regard to Nagorno-Karabakh falls into that category. NATO members are reluctant to challenge Russia in what they regard as that country’s “own backyard” and need Russia’s cooperation on issues involving Iran and North Korea. Also, many European countries are dependent upon Russia in varying degrees as a source of oil and natural gas.
- What is the possibility of cooperation between Russia and US in the security sphere? What would be the role of South Caucasus in that cooperation?
- There are areas in which Russia, the U.S. and the South Caucasus republics can cooperate in exchanging information on issues affecting all parties such as terrorist organizations and drug trafficking. Russia will not accept NATO membership for Georgia and Azerbaijan.
APA
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