Before US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton departed for Astana to attend the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) summit, many claimed back home in the US that Europe’s largest security watchdog “is not of any use at all.”
Amid such increasing concerns regarding the whole structure of the organization, one should also be worried if mechanisms used by this organization would be proper platforms to resolve conflicts, particularly those dealing with ethnic animosities, decades-long hostilities and persistent hatred. Besides being a platform for reconciliation, the OSCE summit this week has turned into a battleground between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and his Armenian counterpart, Serzh Sarksyan.
The Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents, as usual, again traded abusive language and threats over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict -- the most bloody and protracted conflict in the post-Soviet space. Armenia, in a surprising move, vowed to recognize the self-declared, unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh as an independent entity if Azerbaijan matches its war rhetoric with a military offensive by resuming war.
President Abdullah Gül, in an interview with Reuters this week, said Turkey is playing an increasing role in ex-Soviet states. “Even though there is no breakthrough point [in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict] at the moment, there are some positive steps taking place,” Gül said. “There is a silent, but very determined diplomacy.”
But views differ on whether Turkey has the capability to deal with this conflict. Turkey has played a very significant role in pushing Iran back to the negotiating table with the international community over its suspected nuclear program. Similarly, Turkey also continues to play a constructive role in Iraq and the Balkans. The country also successfully mediated between Israel and Syria in 2008-2009 but did little with regard to Nagorno-Karabakh, and many argue this has something to do with Russian hesitation to let Turkey become involved in the matter.
Hasan Köni, an expert on Turkish foreign policy from Galatasaray University, said Turkish foreign policy is now designed in a way that is set to compromise on a wide range of issues to achieve a breakthrough, which could be true for the Cyprus problem, the Kurdish issue and Nagorno-Karabakh, as he explained how Turkey could exert its influence to settle Nagorno-Karabakh.
He argued that the OSCE Minsk Group had been established to keep the leaders of the two sides talking, using delaying tactics [to prevent any outbreak of war]. “I have ‘wrestled with France’ as I was an adviser to a [foreign minister] in the mid-1990s when the EU member state worked assiduously to stop the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia, through the use of the alleged Armenian genocide issue,” he said. The primary goal of France, Köni said, is to block Turkey’s route to Central Asian energy resources and prevent better ties with Turkic countries.
There are nearly 400,000 ethnic Armenians living in France, and the country made denying the so-called Armenian genocide a crime several years ago.
Köni alleged that Russia has many military bases in Nagorno-Karabakh that help it command an extensive area in the Caucasus region. The country has also been a historical and long-established ally of Armenia. Köni also said the Armenian lobby in the US makes this country antagonistic to Turkey and Azerbaijan on the Armenian issue. “These are the co-chairs of the Minsk Group. A complete ‘delaying’ tactic,” Köni said.
Drawing a pessimistic and bleak picture, Köni said as a member of the OSCE Minsk Group there is less that Turkey can do because Turkey is now in a position that allows it to step back with regard to many issues that it is involved in to reach a deal rather than moving on the offensive.
Talks over the status of Nagorno-Karabakh are very analogous to the Middle East peace process between Israel and Palestine in terms of the methods used to keep the sides talking. Russia is continually rewarding Armenia to make it stay at the negotiating table and push the Azerbaijani side to keep talking as a way to prevent Azerbaijan from resuming the war against Armenia.
Azerbaijan, as a result, is trying to persuade the international community that the conflict poses an imminent danger to security in the region, including vulnerable energy routes, in a bid to elevate the dispute to international platforms for discussion.
Köni said even four consecutive United Nations Security Council resolutions would not really mean anything because these resolutions are being deliberately used by major powers.
While Armenia placed massive military power into the provinces adjacent to Nagorno-Karabakh, where no single Armenian lived, the UN Security Council adopted four resolutions, calling on the aggressor state to withdraw its troops from the occupied territories. These resolutions have not yet been implemented.
Vefa Guluzade, a former foreign policy aide of the late Azerbaijani President Haydar Aliyev, said Azerbaijan is working hard to resolve the issue as soon as possible and is consequently making huge concessions.
Azerbaijan earlier pledged “the highest autonomy ever on earth” for Karabakh Armenians if they agree to stay inside Azerbaijan. Guluzade said they enjoyed autonomous status during the Soviet period even though it was a façade, a fake independence, lacking the privileges that a normal autonomous state would have, but “this is a big compromise already” because Azerbaijan will give them more than they have ever had before.
Noting that Russia is a primary stumbling block in resolution of the conflict -- as the country constantly provides every type of aid to its ally, Guluzade said Azerbaijan and Armenia would become members of NATO if they resolve this problem. “Russia does not want this,” he added.
Both under the auspices of former President Vladimir Putin and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Aliyev and Sarksyan met numerous times to agree to discuss basic principles to establish a foundation for a settlement of the dispute.
Guluzade said all talks through Russian mediation have failed to yield any tangible results, adding that Aliyev is very constructive during the talks, but that Russia constantly pushes Azerbaijan to keep talking to its arch foe. According to the Azerbaijani side, it would be a good thing if there was a breakthrough. But talks have gone on for decades and Azerbaijan believes that resuming war is a more effective way of solving problems there. Russia thus pushes Azerbaijan to talk as a tactic to distract it from war. Dismissing any optimism regarding peace talks under OSCE Minsk Group mediation, Guluzade quipped that the talks are doomed to fail “until Russia disappears.”
Speaking about Turkey’s role in bringing the protracted conflict to the attention of the international community, Guluzade said Turkey is sincere and seeks justice. “But this is not how things work,” he said. Acknowledging that Turkish leadership has intensified its activities and wishes to spearhead a process that will address the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict by the current government, Guluzade said Turkey simply does not have that capacity now.
He also praised the current government for taking the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh seriously. The former adviser said Turkey previously remained indifferent to the occupation of Azerbaijani territories in the early 1990s. Former Prime Minister of Turkey Süleyman Demirel did not speak out when the Khojali massacre, a mass slaughter of ethnic Azerbaijanis in Khojali town in Karabakh, where more than 700 civilians, including 100 children, were killed in couple of hours, was committed.
Now both sides are talking for the sake of talking, as the alternative would be a war. The Turkish leadership and the international community should pay more attention to this small spot to urgently address the conflict instead of 18 years of diplomatic overtures that have produced almost nothing thus far.
Mahir Zeynalov
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