Interview with Alex Jackson, Senior Editor, Caucasian Review of International Affairs.
Q: You have recently taken part in the third security forum in the South Caucasus held in Baku. How do you assess prospects of the resolution of conflicts here?
A: We currently see positive news as for Georgia. President Saakashvili persuaded the world community that he is not going to apply force in the relation to the separatist regimes in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. And though in the established situation the Georgian president has no special space for maneuvering, this decision is anyway a big step for the Georgian president.
As for the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict around Nagorno Karabakh, I can say that it remains “frozen’ and unfortunately no special progress is observed in the process. Much is said about a breakthrough in the next couple of months but though similar hopes in the past did not come true, there are grounds to hope for the soonest breakthrough in the situation through diplomatic efforts.
Q: Everyone is aware of the outcome of Russia’s mediation’ in the conflict areas in Georgia. Do you believe in the success of the current mediation activeness of Georgia?
A: This actively is just episodic since Russia is not interested in the resolution of the Karabakh conflict. It is rather interested in preserving the conflict in a frozen state for the further execution of Moscow’s interests in the region.
All the same, Russia has really taken many diplomatic efforts for the resolution of the conflict, the Russian side has repeatedly managed to organize the bilateral meetings of the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia. And on the whole Russia is really interested in the resolution of this conflict for raising regional stability and improving its own diplomatic prestige after the war with Georgia.
Q: Azerbaijan is ready to grant high level of autonomy to Nagorno Karabakh, while Armenia does not agree and tries to get independence for this region by Kosovo’s example. Which outcome is most probable, in your opinion?
A: I do not think Karabakh will ever be independent. Azerbaijan, which is ready to grant the highest level of autonomy to this region, will never let it be independent. The root of the problem lies with the contradictions between the territorial integrity stated by Baku and the right of nations for self-determination, Yerevan insists on. I am confident that the self-determination of the population of the region must be spoken of only after the return of Azerbaijani refugees and IDPs there.
Q: How do you explain the obvious fact of weakening of the US influence in the South Caucasus region?
A: The United States have a lower role in this region compared to the recent past. The current administration of the White House pays less attention to this region compared to the previous administration and it is caused by a number of reasons, including the fact that Obama’s administration is currently fully engaged in Iran and Afghanistan and is dealing with the South Caucasus to the extent appropriate for more global tasks (for Washington).
The demonstration of such a US policy is the sad story with the appointment of the US ambassador in Baku, where the delay is caused by the strong resistance of the Armenian lobby. Thus, the US passiveness in the South Caucasus is caused by diplomatic and political reasons…
Aliyah Fridman
News.Az
| < Prev | Next > |
|---|
