Interview with Rasim Agayev, political scientist.
Q: How do you assess the results of the OSCE summit in Astana in terms of the resolution of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno Karabakh?
A: There has come the proof that it is quite naïve to expect the solution of such serious interstate conflicts like the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno Karabakh at any summit or any international forum. The process of settlement of such conflicts takes too much work within a few years. In addition, it is also important that two superpowers including Russia and the United States to work out the ways of settlement. In addition, in case with the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno Karabakh, this is not recorded. These both world powers have so far come to the only thing-the conflicts in the world cannot be settled through force in the South Caucasus, and they must be settled peacefully.
Q: And what about the Russian-Georgian conflict in South Ossetia then?
A: It is clear to the whole world and the United States that Russia is not going to leave the South Caucasus. The same way, the world and primarily Russia knows that the United States wanted to seize the full control over our region. We saw the results of this confrontation in 2008 on the example of the Russian-Georgian war in South Ossetia. So, in order to avert military confrontation in the South Caucasus, it was decided to settle all conflicts in our region peacefully.
Q: You have mentioned that the process of settlement of such conflicts as the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno Karabakh requires too much work for years. But was it impossible to find the ways of its solution within almost two decades?
A: I think this occurs for the reason that the resolution of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno Karabakh was once empowered to external powers in the face of the OSCE Minsk Group. The outcomes of this mistakes have led to the fact that today we see any prerequisites to suggest that the resolution of this conflict has reached a breakthrough.
Q: And what if the resolution of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno Karabakh was not empowered to external powers in the face of the Minsk Group?
A: First of all, it would be possible to select a different format of the resolution of this conflict, attract other superpowers, for example. In addition, the historical experience shows that such conflicts are settled for the reason that a cardinally new situation appears in the world. We have already witnessed that a cardinally new historical situation established in Russia for the reason of the socialist revolution when it had to control the whole South Caucasus. And now in the case if Russia, the United States or European Union seize the full control over the entire South Caucasus, the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno Karabakh will be settled quickly.
Q: Are there any prospects of the resolution of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno Karabakh at this stage?
A: I think yes. We all witness the rapid weakening of the political positions of Armenia, whose grounds about the “historical right” are already not taken seriously. All the same, Azerbaijan has never had such a favorable situation for the fair resolution of the conflict with Armenia in Nagorno Karabakh, as now. And I do not rule out that the United States is preparing any solution to this conflict, which explains the concerns of official Yerevan.
Akper Hasanov
News.Az
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