Interview with Alexander Sotnichenko, associate professor of international relations at St Petersburg State University.
Q: Can 2010 be described as a year of frustrated expectations on resolution of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh?
A: Yes, unfortunately 2010 was not marked with any breakthrough in the resolution of the conflict. The Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders met in Astrakhan and the OSCE summit was held in Astana. However, the parties did not come to any agreement.
Q: Why do you think the international community is not putting appropriate pressure on Armenia, which is ignoring not only international law but also the resolutions of the UN Security Council calling on Armenia to withdraw its armed forces from the occupied lands of Azerbaijan?
A: The international community has not yet developed a plan to resolve the conflict which would suit both parties. In addition, no state or international organization has assumed responsibility for resolution of the conflict. The international community is satisfied with the current frozen state of the conflict. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan have almost equal opportunities to promote their view of the conflict, so the status quo suits the majority of global and regional actors. The conflict must be settled within the framework of regional cooperation between the South Caucasus countries, as well as regional superpowers concerned with peace and stability in the Caucasus. For this purpose the level of political integration needs to be raised between Russia, Turkey, Iran and Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia. This is possible only within the framework of a big Eurasian integration project.
Q: What is your view of the Armenian parliament's failure to vote on recognition of the independence of the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh republic?
A: Recognition of the independence of the NKR is Armenia’s trump card, which it waves in the face of threatened escalation, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan said recently.
Q: Do you agree that Armenia’s policy on Karabakh aims to provoke Azerbaijan to use its right to restore its territorial integrity by force in the hope that the international community will condemn Azerbaijan and agree to recognize the independence of Karabakh?
A: Armenia is satisfied with the status quo here and does not need military conflict under any circumstances, considering Azerbaijan's more rapid development and the levels of personnel and military hardware in the army. In the event of war, Armenia will conduct a powerful information campaign against Azerbaijan which could be decisive. Yerevan’s position may find a response in a number of EU countries, the United States and Russia which will urge the parties to withdraw troops and preserve the current state.
Q: Is a new war between Azerbaijan and Armenia possible and, if so, what would be its outcome?
A: It is difficult to predict the future in our changing world, especially in the Caucasus. From our viewpoint, military action can start anytime as a result of provocation. I would like to repeat once again that Yerevan is satisfied with the current situation and Armenia is hardly likely to initiate hostilities. War may start because of the excessive confidence of the Azerbaijani elite about the superiority of its army. Today conflicts are settled not so much by force of arms, as by the actions of the hegemonies of international politics in the global information and political space. Both parties will lose in the event of war. Armenia will bear significant losses, the international community will not allow Azerbaijan to restore political power over the areas lost and international peacekeeping forces may arrive under the auspices of the United States and NATO and build regional architecture in line with their interests. We can see this in practice in the Middle East.
The South Caucasus nations do not want to see a repetition of the Iraqi or Afghan scenarios at home.
Q: How do you assess the current economic and internal political state of Armenia? Might there be a change of power in the country?
A: The authorities in Armenia are quite stable at present. They rely on three global political powers: the diaspora, which recent events over the Armenian-Turkish negotiations showed to be stronger than the central authorities and the people’s will, the lack of interest of the international community in serious changes in the region and Russia's political and economic support. If the influence of these factors is preserved, even if the authorities change, Yerevan’s policy will not change much.
Alexander Sotnichenko is associate professor in the faculty of international relations at St Petersburg State University and holds a candidate degree in historical sciences.
Akper Hasanov
News.Az
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