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May 26th
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Turkey Courts Russia, Way To Go With Armenia

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Increasingly growing ties between Russia and Turkey continued this year, as cooperation and partnership in the energy sector became dominant themes in the programs of both countries.

While Moscow has skillfully taken advantage of Turkey’s desire to become an energy hub through signing energy deals with its southern neighbor in recent years, rivalry continues in both countries’ backyard, the volatile South Caucasus.

Trade volume with Russia outstripped Germany as Turkey’s largest trading partner, as bilateral trade is expected to surpass $40 billion by the end of 2010. A total of 67 percent of Turkey’s natural gas and 20 percent of its imported oil are provided by Russia. Nearly 3 million Russian tourists visit Turkey every year and the two countries recently signed an agreement to reciprocally remove visa requirements. Moreover, Turkey has also erased Russia from its list of external threats, a sign of trust in its northern neighbor.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s official visit to Turkey in May this year carried bilateral relations far beyond where they had been previously. Turkey and Russia have also reached an agreement on visa-free travel for tourists. Russia and Turkey signed 17 agreements in Ankara in various areas, the most important of them being the visa deal. According to the new agreement, tourists traveling from one country to the other will have free entry for up to 30 days.

Russia and Turkey also clinched a deal for the construction of Turkey’s first nuclear power plant in the coastal town of Akkuyu, in Mersin province. According to the agreement, which was signed during Medvedev’s visit to Turkey in May, the two countries will cooperate in the construction and operation of the power plant. A consortium led by state-controlled Russian builder AtomStroyExport will construct the plant in Akkuyu, paying all of the construction costs for the plant, which is estimated at around $20 billion.

Relations with Armenia a debacle, slightly improved with Azerbaijan

In a bid to bury century-long animosities, Turkey and Armenia signed two protocols last year but the countries failed to display a political will to implement these protocols, each throwing the ball to the other’s court. Earlier this year, the Armenian Constitutional Court said the protocols are in line with Article 11 of the Armenian Declaration of Independence and attached a sub-annex to the documents: “The Republic of Armenia stands in support of the task of achieving international recognition of the Armenian genocide in Ottoman Turkey and Western Armenia.”

As Turkish officials expressed dismay and concern, the so-called Armenian genocide resolution vote was looming in the distance on March 4, which shook Turkish-US relations and effectively stopped the protocols. Armenian nationalist opposition protested the protocols from the outset, claiming that rapprochement with Turkey will water down Armenia’s quest to promote the endorsement of the alleged Armenian genocide in other countries. Armenia feared that US President Barack Obama would fail to use the word “genocide” during his remarks on April 24, Remembrance Day. Largely for this reason, on April 22, Armenia announced that it suspended the ratification of protocols.

With that, diplomacy came to a dead end. Although both Davutoğlu and President Abdullah Gül repeatedly talked about silent diplomacy with Armenia, who dismissed the claims, saying that they had no idea what silent diplomacy was. Turkish officials, however, have not made it clear if they were talking about unofficial contacts and growing relations between the members of civil society in the two countries.

The most important development between Turkey and Azerbaijan this year has certainly been the long-awaited three natural gas supply deals and Turkey’s transit policies for Azerbaijani natural gas. Following almost two years of intense 39-session negotiations, agreement was reached in early June over the price adjustments of natural gas imported to Turkey from Azerbaijan. Figures on the price of the gas are being kept confidential, but Turkish officials say that the new prices were determined in line with market prices and will be a little higher than the previous price of $120 per 1,000 cubic meters. Turkey will retroactively pay for the gas purchased since April 15, 2008, at the new prices. The deal also set the terms for the transit of Azerbaijani gas to European countries and addressed price adjustments for the gas to Turkey.

Another significant deal with Azerbaijan came on the heels of a Russian-Armenian security pact. Russia struck a significant deal with Armenia on Aug. 19, pledging to secure the country’s borders from outside aggressions. Turkey made a pre-emptive move just days before Medvedev’s visit to Yerevan by signing a similar treaty with the oil-rich Muslim nation. in late July of this year, Russia extended its lease of a Russian army unit in Armenia -- estimated to include 4,000 Russian troops, along with several S-300 air defense missile systems -- until 2049. Turkey and Azerbaijan concluded a Strategic Partnership and Mutual Assistance deal on Aug. 16 during Gül’s two-day visit to Azerbaijan.

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