Interview with Armenian political scientist Sergey Minasyan, deputy director of the Caucasus Institute.
Q: How can you describe 2010 in terms of the Karabakh conflict settlement?
A: 2010 was the year in which the status quo in the Karabakh conflict area and throughout the South Caucasus became entrenched, following the August 2008 Five-Day War and the so-called "football diplomacy" between Armenia and Turkey, and which is maintained by the military and political balance between the conflict parties.
After attempts at Armenian-Turkish reconciliation became frozen (in fact they also froze any real progress on Nagorno-Karabakh for two years), the pendulum swung back and from April to December 2010 Azerbaijan undertook an unsuccessful attempt to invigorate the Karabakh process in its favour, accentuating military rhetoric and the threat of war.
However, the OSCE summit in Astana showed that the international community is not inclined to change the parameters of a settlement or artificially accelerate the development of conditions in the conflict area, when the conflict parties are not ready for compromise. Therefore, 2010 resulted in the entrenchment of a stable status quo over Nagorno-Karabakh, which none of the conflict parties will be able to change substantially in the near future.
Q: There have recently been reports about the possible replacement of the Minsk Group co-chairs. What is your view?
A: The replacement of the Minsk Group co-chairs is impossible in the foreseeable future. No countries have the potential to be compared with or replace the co-chairing states.
Q: What are your expectations for 2011? Will there be real achievements in the negotiations on Karabakh?
A: The talks and reciprocal rhetoric will continue, but there will be no significant changes in the Karabakh negotiating format in 2011.
Q: How would you describe the current state of Armenian-Turkish relations? What happens next with the protocols and the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border?
A: The Armenian-Turkish process is now frozen and there will be no achievements in negotiations before the elections expected in Turkey this summer. However, public contacts will continue, as will the attempts of Ankara and Yerevan to maintain the opportunity to resume the process if the necessary political conditions are created for this.
Kamala Mammadova
News.Az
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