Interview with Alexander Sotnichenko, associate professor of international relations at St Petersburg State University.
Q: The foreign ministers of Azerbaijan, Russia and Armenia held their latest meeting on Karabakh on 24 January in Moscow. Do you think that Russian mediation alone, without fellow mediators the United States and France, can lead to a breakthrough in the conflict settlement?
A: It would be difficult to achieve a breakthrough in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement through Moscow’s efforts alone, since Russia suffered great losses in terms of geopolitics and its image in the past 20 years. However, we can never underestimate Moscow’s role in the South Caucasus. It still plays a key role. No other state can have Russia's impact on the policy of all three South Caucasus countries.
Now we can see that no breakthrough has been achieved in almost 20 years of trying, despite the involvement of the US and EU. I don't think it will be possible to gain results today if a solution to the issue has not been found yet. It is a matter of the differing positions of the main participants in the negotiating process and the mediators, as well as the positive attitude of most concerned parties towards preserving the status quo. Therefore, paradoxical though it may seem, Russia will theoretically achieve greater results alone than in cooperation with the United States and France. However, I think the real breakthrough will occur only when the format of negotiations is changed, when regional superpowers, the parties really interested in peace in the region, are officially involved in the resolution process.
Q: Do you believe that the United States, which is a long way from the Karabakh conflict region, is really interested in the resolution of the problem and able to help with this?
A: No way. I have repeatedly stated that Washington’s main aim in Eurasia is to prevent the creation of an alternative centre of power, which is why, according to the divide and rule principle, the United States finances Armenia and Azerbaijan equally, blackmailing the latter with the possibility that it might recognize the Armenian genocide. The events of the past 10 years in Iraq and Afghanistan have demonstrated the peacekeeping potential of the United States. Therefore, I think the political leaders of the South Caucasus should fear such a partner.
Q: What role can the EU play in this process, considering its declared interest in the stability of its neighbours' borders?
A: The European Union cannot be suspected of aggression or launching wars and instability, since their negative consequences would sooner or later reach its borders, at least in the shape of refugees, international crime and drug trafficking. However, vulgar idealism and double standards are peculiar to enlightened Europe. For example, Kosovo, recognized by the majority of the EU countries, is the main supplier of heroin to the European market. Belarus can hardly be blamed for such sins, but tough sanctions have been imposed on its leadership. The same occurs with the South Caucasus. Europe thinks that it is Azerbaijan that occupied Karabakh with the help of the cunning Bolsheviks while the Armenians are victims, they believe that the Turks exterminated millions of Armenians in 1915, that Russia attacked small, helpless Georgia in 2008 and it is very difficult to make them change their mind, especially when revision of the Armenian genocide in some countries is fraught with threats (for example, in France). It is difficult to ask for judgment from those who have already developed their own opinion about truth and justice and who believe they only they uphold these virtues.
Q: There was a minor diplomatic scandal over the European Commission website's failure to report Commission President José Manuel Barroso's remarks in Baku about territorial integrity. Do you think this was done deliberately or had no political motivation, as EU sources say?
A: It is now difficult to say whether this mistake was made on purpose. If the missing part of the statement has already appeared on the official EU website, it means that the spat might be made up. However, considering the Europeans' clear sympathies towards Armenia, the large Armenian diaspora in Europe and the recognition of the Armenian genocide by leading EU countries - Germany, France, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands and so on - doubts arise about the objectivity and sincerity of European officials.
Leyla Tagiyeva
News.Az
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