Interview with political scientist Rasim Musabeyov, a non-partisan member of Azerbaijani parliament.
Q: What can we expect from the current visit by the Minsk Group co-chairs to Azerbaijan and Armenia?
A: The current visit by the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict should be considered only in the context of their ongoing mediation mission to resolve the problem. During their visit to Azerbaijan and Armenia the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs are seeking to clarify the plan and agenda for talks in 2011, as well as the issues and details to be discussed between the parties throughout the year. The co-chairs are also clarifying any convergence in the positions of Armenia and Azerbaijan in order to make progress. I also think that the co-chairs will be presenting the parties with the report on the OSCE's field assessment mission to the occupied territories.
Q: Is the institution of the OSCE Minsk Group and its co-chairmanship effective in resolving the Karabakh conflict?
A: When talking about the OSCE co-chairs, then it has to be said that they are three major states, the United States, Russia and France, that make up three of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council. Therefore, it is difficult to find a higher format for mediation than the current one in the shape of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs. It's not simply a question of whether the OSCE is capable or incapable of settling the conflict. This organization itself is a weak structure, but the three OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs use the organization as an umbrella. These states have enough influence and opportunities to promote the process by limiting Armenian ambitions to a certain framework. But so far they seem to be unwilling to put pressure on Armenia. As for Azerbaijan, it is difficult to put pressure on it, since international law works in its favour. In addition, unlike impoverished Armenia, Azerbaijan is fully independent. Unlike Armenia, Azerbaijan does not ask foreign countries for help. On the contrary, other states ask for Azerbaijan’s help on any issue. Therefore, the co-chairs cannot put pressure on one of the countries and do not want to put pressure on the other country. As a result, the Karabakh conflict settlement remains frozen. However, it is impossible to keep the process frozen forever and, in the absence of progress towards peace, processes gradually lead towards war.
Q: Is it possible to combine the three principles of territorial integrity, the rights of nations to self-determination and non-use of force in the Karabakh settlement?
A: These principles are not incompatible. The international principle of the right of nations to self-determination does not envisage the categorical secession of a territory from a state. It should be noted that international law lacks a different interpretation of the principle of territorial integrity, it either exists or it does not. As for the rights of nations to self-determination, this principle has several forms. And one form of the right of nations to self-determination does not exclude the principle of the preservation of territorial integrity. I would like to repeat that in this very case, the obstacle in the Karabakh conflict is that they cannot put pressure on one party and do not want to put pressure on the other. But it is necessary to choose one of the ways, since there is no alternative.
Q: You have stated the possibility of a new war between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Does this mean you agree with the latest report of the International Crisis Group which does not rule out this scenario in the Karabakh conflict?
A: In drafting their report, the experts of the International Crisis Group also asked my opinion about the prospects of a resumption of the war for Karabakh. It is clear that a situation in which the mediating countries continue talks cannot last forever. My opinion is that the threat of a resumption of war is real. The current and future visits by the Minsk Group co-chairs cannot avert war. The armament of both parties, the growing number of incidents on the front, the increased military rhetoric show that the situation is gradually approaching war, in the absence of peace. No one can say when and how it will happen.
Lala B
News.Az
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