Interview with Elnur Aslanov, head of the political analysis and information department at the Azerbaijani Presidential Administration.
A few days ago the International Crisis Group published its policy briefing "Armenia and Azerbaijan: Preventing War". What is your view of the report?
This quite comprehensive and at times balanced report analyses the situation in the region, which has been the scene of an ethno-political "natural disaster" for many years. The International Crisis Group warned about a possible escalation of the conflict in the region 23 years after the event that started in Armenia with repression on an ethnic basis, after the murders of Azerbaijanis in Armenia and Karabakh and before the latest anniversary of the Khojaly and Sumgayit tragedies, committed by Armenians. Of course, any such long, active conflict, and the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict cannot be considered frozen, leads to the discussion of such possible scenarios.
The Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, as one of the oldest and bloodiest ethno-political conflicts in the former USSR, requires great, constant attention from international organizations. The constant attention of the International Crisis Group towards the conflict shows the high risk of hostilities and the need for an imminent settlement and to find ways to establish peace and stability in the region. In its report, the group noted the growing tensions between the parties and warned about a possible start of the conflict. However, the international organization should primarily be concerned with the absence of a constructive attitude from the Armenian party in the negotiating process. The essence of the conflict has not changed over the years of confrontation and lies in one thing only - to stop the occupation of Azerbaijan’s historical lands by Armenia.
Peace and stability in the region will be unattainable until the Azerbaijani territories are liberated from the aggressor. Therefore, I think the group should include the principles of international law, in particular, the principle of territorial integrity and the inviolability of state borders, in the list of priorities in their report. It would be more productive, if the report touched upon this aspect of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, instead of just stating what is well-known to both parties.
An international organization that supports peace in the region and is "committed to preventing and resolving deadly conflict" should not content itself with a mere statement of the facts. This is not enough.
It is extremely important to call everything by its name and force the aggressor to disavow its destructive policy and liberate the Azerbaijani lands. It will be extremely difficult to speak of peace in the region without a constructive approach from Armenia to the negotiating process and an overall rational understanding of the situation in the future. We have repeatedly seen the Armenian leadership, both current and former, refuse to find an acceptable way that would lead the Armenian and Azerbaijani peoples to peace and stability in the final analysis. Azerbaijan is ready to ensure the security of Karabakh Armenians under international guarantees within the framework of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, to create conditions for economic welfare and cultural development. However, the Armenian leadership views the conflict as the reason it came to power and conflict settlement runs the the risk of a loss of power.
The report of the International Crisis Group states that the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh and seven adjacent regions remains unchanged and Armenian armed formations are still in the territory of Azerbaijan. The report clearly states the actions of the conflict parties - Armenia and Azerbaijan - and also says that Armenia must stop sending its regular army soldiers to serve in Nagorno-Karabakh. In these conditions, the need to raise Azerbaijan's military budget to more than $3bn seems well-grounded and fair. Azerbaijan will continue to think about an alternative to a peaceful solution to the conflict since the status quo is continuing. This is the natural right of Azerbaijan and no one is going to refuse it.
The report also states that the status quo is not acceptable to Azerbaijan and cannot last for long. On the whole, the report just reflects the facts on the contact line, as well as in Armenia and Azerbaijan, individually. In fact, the report did not say anything new, it just reflected what the parties are constantly talking about.
Today Azerbaijan's rapid economic growth allows a growth in military expenditure and an increase in both military and technical hardware and in the combat spirit of Azerbaijani soldiers. Time is on Azerbaijan's side. While Azerbaijan is developing and growing economically, Armenia is losing in the economic sense and growing politically more disorganized by the day.
Azerbaijan's economic development will help raise the country's military expenditure to a level that exceeds the whole budget of Armenia, which is up to its neck in debt. It is quite clear that, were it not for the war between the two countries, the economic future of the region would possibly have different, more positive prospects.
Today Armenia, mired in its own irrational, destructive position, is depriving itself and its citizens of the opportunity for a normal life. Thus, the economic and political regression of Armenian society reflects the policy of the ruling elite, which refuses to accept a peaceful solution to the conflict.
| < Prev | Next > |
|---|
