Interview with Azerbaijani political scientist Fikrat Sadikhov.
Q: How would you comment on the International Crisis Group report, Armenia and Azerbaijan: Preventing War, which considers a resumption of war over Nagorno-Karabakh is realistic and says that a renewed war would be even more devastating than the conflict of 1992-1994?
A: I have to say that the current report of the International Crisis Group is more objective and balanced than previous reports and assessments. It reflects the realities of the region. In fact, the experts of this group are not far off the mark. The conflict can arise at any moment. By the way, we don't conceal it. It's not just a lot of hot air about increasing defence potential and defence power, we are really doing everything necessary to liberate our lands from Armenian occupation. It looks as though this reality is finally sinking in for European politicians. Anyway, structures such as the International Crisis Group and other organizations understand the reality and the clear development of events in this direction.
Q: What is making a resumption of war possible, since the Azerbaijani leadership says the potential of the peace process has not been exhausted yet?
A: There are objective laws for the development of the situation. If the problem has not been settled in 20 years, it means Armenia does not want to liberate the occupied lands. All the same, the leading states, which are mediators or, at least, have assumed a mission has mediators, show complete indifference and try to equate both parties to the conflict. Naturally, in these conditions Azerbaijan has no other option and, as a result, this conflict could flare up at any time.
Q: Would this be a large-scale war or a localized operation?
A: This will not be a large-scale war in which we practically try to occupy Armenia. It will not be like that. We're talking about our own territory. And in line with the UN Charter and the norms of international law, we always do everything necessary to liberate these lands. In whatever way we can. At least, I am satisfied with the International Crisis Group's awareness of the realities that we really can settle the conflict through war. But this is, of course, fraught with consequences, there is nothing surprising here.
Q: How negative could these consequences be for Azerbaijan?
A: There can be no absolute certainty here. There can only be comparison and analysis. Comparison and analysis of the Azerbaijani and Armenian military potential are obvious.
Of course, war can breed instability in the region for a time, but I don’t think it would last for ever. I am not a military specialist, but I think it will not be so difficult for us to do it with our defence potential, if everything is thought through carefully. I would like to repeat that we are not talking about a major war, but large-scale hostilities, where armies will fight between states, especially since we have no claims on Armenian land.
Q: Are you sure the superpowers would not prevent Azerbaijan from doing this?
A: It is clear that there are external powers. But believe me, if we work to start liberating our land, despite the displeasure of the external factor (I mean the superpowers), Azerbaijan needs no further grounds to justify its actions other than the existing ones. It is clear that we are talking about the recognized territories of Azerbaijan and the country's territorial integrity is recognized by all states. In fact, international law is on our side. We have such grounds.
Leyla Tagiyeva
News.Az
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