Interview with Sinan Ogan, chief of the Strategic Research Center of Turkey, TURKSAM.
Q: Turkish mass media has recently posted information that President of Turkey Abdullah Gul is going to ask Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan to support the Turkish candidate for the post of the OSCE Secretary General. Can this letter play the second breathe role in normalizing the Turkish-Armenian relations?
A: This fact itself cannot play a role in normalizing the Turkish-Armenian relations, since Turkey, to get support in appointing chairman of the OSCE Secretary General, must send its envoys not only to Armenia and Russia but also European countries. But it should not hope that sending an envoy to Yerevan to get support in appointment of the OSCE Secretary General will play a role in normalizing bilateral ties. All the same, Armenia’s provisions in relation to Turkey are just a pretense in order not to give away in Karabakh settlement. And if Yerevan responds the same way to the requirements of the Turkish side in the Karabakh settlement issue, there may appear a definite thaw in the Turkish-Armenian relations. But I would like to repeat that the sole fact of the letter of President Abdullah Gul, or other facts of this kind will not settle existing problems.
Q: How wide can be the implications of the possible opening of the Turkish-Armenian border for Azerbaijani interests and does this fact really have a direct negative cause and effect link to the Karabakh settlement?
A: Indeed, the opening of the Turkish-Armenian relations contradicts the interests of Azerbaijan. In fact, this is also contradictory to the interests of Turkey itself, since Turkey closed border with Armenia over the occupation of the territory of its neighbor. If Turkey opens borders with Armenia without termination of occupation, it will indirectly mean that it agrees with the actions of the Armenian side. This is inadmissible. Certainly, in this case the aggressor country will not disavow its occupation policy. I do not believe those who say disavowal of occupation policy can be achieved through involving Armenia into regional projects. On the contract, I am strictly against establishing relations with aggressor countries unless they disavow their occupation policy. Otherwise, this state mans encouraging these countries, rather than punishing them.
Q: Is the closed Armenian-Turkish border a serious factor of pressure on Armenia?
A: This fact is not the case, which should be assessed only from the economic point of view. Probably, the closed Turkish-Armenian borders are raising transit ways, lying via Armenia. As is known, such a transit line is from Iran to Georgia via Armenia. But the main thing is the degree Armenia benefits from closed border in political and diplomatic sense. The presence of closed borders means punishment of the aggressor country this way. But if borders open, this will mean justification to the aggressor, occupational policy of Armenia. Therefore, the fact of closed Turkish-Armenian border should be viewed not from the economic, but from political and diplomatic points of view.
Q: Could Ankara make an effective use of the pause in negotiations with Armenia to soften Baku’s position on normalizing the Turkish-Armenian relations?
A: Turkey has carried definite work in this issue. But, all the same, I am not sure about the result of such work, since while considering mutual relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan in the recent months, one can notice the absence of intensive mutual visits of the officials of the two countries. Traditionally, there are two variants of settling problems, in particular, responding to the current events, or taking preventive measures to avoid them. In this connection, if tomorrow the normalization process starts, this will again cause worsening of the Turkish-Azerbaijani relations.
Lala B.
News.Az
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