Interview with Amanda Paul, Policy Analyst.
Q: It seems that Obama's administration doesn't pay much attention to the former USSR republics. Are the post-soviet space and the South Caucasus still an arena of US-Russia competition or Russia after war with Georgia in 2008 became a major player in the region?
A: The US cannot be everywhere or be everything to everybody. It needs to prioritize its foreign policy and presently the South Caucasus is not high on the list. The US is far more engaged with Iran, Afghanistan, the Middle East and more recently events in North Africa. It does not, for better or worse, currently view the south Caucasus as a threat to its national security, therefore it is unlikely to increase its engagement there (beyond lip service) any time soon. Russia remains the dominant power in the region and this in unlikely to change in the near future.
Q: EU interested much in the energy security issues and relies on Azerbaijan in this problem. May the energy interests make the Europe to be more involved in the Karabakh conflict resolution process to make the region and energy deliver more secure?
A: Caspian energy will be crucial for the long term energy security of the EU. Therefore it is in the interests of the EU that the Nagorno Karabakh conflict be resolved as it represents a significant threat to energy transit in the event of renewed war. However, the EU has had a virtually non-existent role in the resolution process, preferring to leave it to the OSCE Minsk group. But with the peace talks stalled and increased tensions on the line of contact there is an increased possibility of renewed war which is beginning to have an impact on the EU. Some elements of the EU are starting to realize that there is an urgent need for greater engagement. While the EU cannot solve the war it could at least try to make greater efforts to prevent war.
Q: There is an opinion that Russia, strategic military ally of Armenia, can't be impartial mediator in Karabakh conflict. How would you estimate role of Russia as a mediator in the conflict?
A: Russia is currently driving peace-process. While it may have close ties with Armenia it also has increasingly strong ties with Azerbaijan.
After events in Georgia Russia is keen to demonstrate that it interested in "solving" conflicts, rather than further complicating or creating them. However, while Russia seems to be maintaining balanced position as a negotiatior one has to ask the question: what will Russia get out of a peace deal? Given that it would loose influence over both
countries as a solution would open the road for incraesed regional cooperation as well as further cooperation with the West. Therefore there does not seem to be much incentive for Moscow.
Q: The Armenian side says that getting independence for Karabakh is the only way to solve the conflict. It's clear that Azerbaijan will never recognize it. Can Armenia expect support from international community if Yerevan first will declare this "independence"?
A: Yerevan recognizing Karabakh's independence would not be supported by the international community. Indeed Armenia would simply bring condemnation and critique on itself. Rather than continue to discuss independence, Yerevan would be better advised to be further engage in the peace talks, begin to prepare the country for an eventual settlment
including being honest enough to explain that the seven Azerbaijani territories surrounding Karabakh will need to be returned to Baku. In the event of a peace deal the decision regarding the final status of Karabakh will probably be at least fifteen years down the line therefore nobody is in a position to predict the future today.
Q: The International Crisis Group (ICG) has warned in its last report of the dangers of a resumption of war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. How real is this scenario taking into account that there is no any progress in the peace process during 20 years of negotiations?
A: Renewed war cannot be ruled out. Probably it would not be started purposely but more likely as a result of violation of the cease fire that got out of control. Given this region is now the most heavily armed in Europe, the scale of the war, could be horrendous with thousands of people losing their lives; However, Aliyev and Sargsiyan are both cautious men and I do not believe either one wants such an outcome. But with tensions rising it is important that the international community engages further and puts more pressure on the two leaders to reach an agreement on the set of Basic Principles that they have been negotiating for a number of years already. Armenia's continued occupation of Azerbaijani lands by force is unacceptable while Azerbaijan's continued threats of taking their lands back by force only serves to increase the siege mentality in Yerevan.
Leyla Tagiyeva
News.Az
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