'I don’t think that at the moment there is much prospect of a renewal of US activism in South Caucasus'.
The statement came from Neil MacFarlane, a career analyst and specialist on the regional dynamics of the former Soviet Union, who currently leads a Department of Politics and International Relations at the Oxford University.
According to him, major Western governments are dealing with significant domestic challenges (political and economic), and they are very much focused in foreign policy on the Arab world.
'In the region, their major focus is management of their relations with Russia. Proceeding with Nabucco may change this slightly, but not much', he says.
Meanwhile, Prof. MacFarlane believes that, there is a prospect on Nagorno-Karabakh for US-Russian cooperation, and both are very fully aware of this problem.
'Neither side wants a blowup and the Russians, in particular may be concerned about getting stuck with a situation where they have to choose between Armenia and Azerbaijan. But I don’t see any evidence that the major parties to the Karabakh conflict are willing to make the concessions necessary to resolve the conflict', Prof. MacFarlane added.
Touching upon the negotiation efforts around the conflict, the analyst mentioned that, the contradiction between territorial integrity and national self-determination is often misunderstood.
'The legal principle of territorial integrity applies to interstate relations, not to majority-minority relations within a state. The legal discussion of self-determination focuses on whether people can determine their own futures and control their own affairs. Except in colonial situations and in conditions of massive violation of rights, international law does not have much to say about secession. If there is reasonable prospect of exercising self-determination within the boundaries of the existing state, most lawyers would argue that the principle of self-determination does not imply a right to secede', he says, adding, "the Madrid principles are not a bad place to start in getting out of the current impasse".
Speaking about the Caucasus security situation the analyst pointed out that, things have settled down since 2008. "The Russians seem content with what they got. Georgia seems uninterested in trying to take it back".
"The underlying security dynamic may be unstable because of Nagorno-Karabakh".
Asked if Georgia and Azerbaijan can become as a NATO member in the nearest perspective with the unsettled conflicts in their territory, Prof. MacFarlane mentioned that, it is not obvious how alliance membership would improve regional security in the Southern Caucasus.
"The conflicts clearly are an obstacle to membership, but the principal obstacle is Russian opposition, and the Russian willingness to enforce that point as they did in Georgia in 2008", he argued.
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