Interview with Thomas Ambrosio, an associate professor of political science at North Dakota State University.
Q: Do you believe in prospects of new era relations between US and Russia, as they promise in Washington and Moscow?
A: I am dubious about the prospects for a 'reset' - as it has been called - between Russia and the United States. US-Russian relations are more often than not based upon the perceived interests of the two parties -- this is probably more the case of Russia, while America tends to mix its interests with ideology. While the recent abstention by Russia on the Libya vote was helpful, it should not be taken as a sign that Hillary Clinton's 2009 'reset' is paying off. There are areas that the two states will agree on and areas where we will disagree.
No rhetoric about how Moscow and Washington have 'turned the page' on the downturn during the Bush administration will change that. The downturn was based upon the perceived interests of Washington and Moscow, the future will be no different.
Q: NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen has said that the North Atlantic alliance will build a missile defence system separately from Russia. Could this escalate tension between NATO and Russia?
A: It is possible, but the real issue is not and never was the missile defense system. The real issue between Washington and Moscow is the latter's insistence that it is a great power with a sphere of influence and its fears of Washington spreading its own sphere of influence closer to Russia.
Everyone knows that the proposed missile defense system could be easily overwhelmed by Russia and that it offered virtually no protection against Russian missiles; we knew it, the Russians knew it. What was important was that having the missile defense shield in a former Soviet satellite state said a lot about the relative power of the US and Russia. It was symbolic of Russia's weakness and therefore had to be opposed by the Kremlin.
Q: Russia has begun modernization of the Gabala radar station in Azerbaijan. Could it make more attractive Russian proposal about joint use of the station with the US?
A: Sure. It makes the West dependent upon Russia and therefore feeds into Russia's consistent attempt to overcompensate for its weakness.
Q: What is your view of NATO's new security concept? Does it concern somehow partner states from post-soviet space, Azerbaijan in particular?
A: I am not convinced that it is really all that new. Sure, there are new parts to it (e.g., the mention of cyber-security), but ultimately NATO can only function effectively when it is in the interests or willingness of its member states -- thus, little has changed since the end of the Cold War.
In terms of Azerbaijan, its relationship with NATO is likewise predicated upon the interests and willingness of the organization's member states, as the organization's lack of any substantive response to Russia's invasion of Georgia illustrated.
Q: Russia is the main political, economic and military ally of Armenia. But they say about EU and US plans to weaken Russian influence on Armenia. Do you believe that this could happen?
A: No. Even if the EU and US were serious, what could they offer Armenia to pull it out of Russia's orbit? Given Armenia's geographical position, Yerevan must look toward Moscow - Russia is far closer to Armenia than the European Union or, especially, the US.
Given the relative level of interests in the Caucasus, Armenia cannot rely on the West's promises -- Moscow has far deeper interests in the region and therefore is far more willing to act in defense of its interests than any outside powers or bloc. As a result, Armenia remains and will remain in Russia's orbit.
Leyla Tagiyeva
News.Az
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