Interviews Zahid Oruj of the Azerbaijani parliament's defence and security committee and deputy leader of the Motherland (Ana Vatan) Party.
Q: Russia has initiated another meeting between the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia in order to organize the next trilateral dialogue between the heads of state on the Karabakh conflict. Will these efforts promote a conflict settlement?
A: Russia has been organizing practically single-handed the meetings between the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia since 2008. Moscow’s important role in the Karabakh settlement is undisputed. It comes against the backdrop of Russia’s growing influence in the region but also seems to be coordinated with international powers. It is already possible to say that the United States and France have agreed to this role for Russia in the Karabakh settlement. In this case, the formal trilateral mediation mission of the co-chairs has been replaced with a unilateral mediation mission by Russia.
Russia is not just holding talks in order to calm people down; it is not a game either to drive international organizations into a stalemate and exclude them from regional processes. Russia is aware that preservation of the status quo in the Karabakh conflict is fraught with serious implications, specifically, a new war. Moscow realizes that in these conditions and with the growing military might of Azerbaijan war is imminent. For this reason, Russia wants to make progress in the negotiating process. Otherwise, Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev would never have organized meetings between the Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders since 2008 just for the sake of his reputation in the international arena.
Q: What does this increased Russian activity on Karabakh hold for Azerbaijan?
A: We are relatively upbeat at the current state of Azerbaijani-Russian relations. First of all, unlike Georgia and even Moldova, Azerbaijan does not seek open confrontation with Russia; second, the interests of the two countries coincide on many regional projects; third, Azerbaijan does not join anti-Russian blocs; fourth, the Azerbaijani people want to enjoy equal relations with Russia. In this case, I believe Russia’s activeness on a Karabakh settlement may lead to a "major peace treaty".
Q: Will Turkey join the negotiating process on a Karabakh settlement?
A: I have to say that Azerbaijani observers missed the importance of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to Russia. During the visit Erdogan said openly that "Turkey welcomes Russia’s efforts to solve the Karabakh conflict" and "Turkey is hopeful that it will take part in settling the problem in a wider format with Russia’s consent".
This shows that Turkey is proposing a model for dialogue that involves Russia, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Armenia, given the abandonment of the region by world actors and its growing role in the South Caucasus. I believe that after the upcoming meeting between the Azerbaijani and Armenian foreign ministers, Elmar Mammadyarov and Edward Nalbandian, Turkey will initiate a meeting of the presidents of Russia, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Armenia. These countries are leaders in the region and a breakthrough on Karabakh depends on this very factor. I think an agreement between Turkey and Russia may be decisive in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict.
Q: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said recently that the issue of Transdniestria should be settled within the the territorial integrity of Moldova with a high degree of self-government being granted to the region. Should we expect a similar position from Moscow on Karabakh?
A: Russia realizes that the status quo in the Karabakh conflict will pose a threat to the Armenian state. In addition, the Karabakh conflict makes Armenia dependent on Russia all the time. I therefore believe that Russia can agree to a high status of autonomy for Karabakh within Azerbaijan.
However, it may do this with the proviso that Azerbaijan agrees to support a number of political steps involving Russia. I am not saying that this means the "return" of Russians to Azerbaijan or joining the Collective Security Treaty Organization. But I suppose that they are working out a format for cooperation between Azerbaijan and Russia which would make it impossible for Baku to conduct anti-Russian policy. In other words, I have to say that Karabakh remains an extremely profitable weapon to influence the foreign policy of Azerbaijan, its regional position and economic interests.
Q: Will Azerbaijan make concessions on the return of its lands?
A: No way. I have to remind you that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev once said that numerous projects are proposed to Azerbaijan. They may seem relatively successful, but are negative in the strategic sense. In other words, Azerbaijan rejects any results that may seem to be a temporary victory but cause losses in the future.
To be honest, this formula protracts the Karabakh conflict, otherwise, Azerbaijan could make concessions on its independent foreign policy or state independence and get Karabakh back. I don't think the return of Karabakh at the cost of a loss to Azerbaijan can be considered a victory.
Lala B.
News.Az
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