Interview with Ulvi Guliyev, a non-partisan member of Azerbaijan's parliament, the Milli Majlis.
Q: Do you think US President Barack Obama will use the English term “Armenian genocide” in his address to the Armenian community while describing events in 1915 in the Ottoman Empire?
A: I don’t think so. At best, Barack Obama will use the term “Metz Yeghern” ["great calamity" in Armenian] as he did last year.
The US president will try to kill two birds with one stone: not to complicate further the already complicated Turkish-American relations, but at the same time not to take the issue completely off the agenda, keeping it as a sword of Damocles over Turkey.
Q: Do you agree that the Armenian diaspora has not made so much effort this year to put pressure on the US to recognize the so-called “Armenian genocide”?
A: I don’t think that the Armenian diaspora in the US has reduced its efforts.
It's another thing that this year the campaign to put pressure on the US government to recognize the mythical "genocide” is less open.
Moreover, it should also be noted that the notorious Pzo case and the arrest of the large Armenian Force mafia group have significantly changed the US response to demands that Armenians throughout the world make through their lobbyists who could be well paid thanks to millions from Armenian criminal gangs.
And the main thing is that the so-called "Armenian genocide" is a bargaining chip in the hands of the world's leading powers, including the United States.
They benefit from having this mechanism to put pressure on Turkey, and it is not beneficial to lose it which is what will happen if any US presidents utter the English term "Armenian genocide" to describe the events of 1915 in the Ottoman Empire.
Q: To what degree is Turkey succeeding in promoting its own geopolitical status?
A: I believe it is successful. Ankara has done much to position itself as a country able to solve problems with its opponents, such as Greece, as a state with influence in the Arab world and also as a strong and important regional power. Along other reasons, Turkey’s increased geopolitical status makes the “Armenian genocide” less likely to be recognized by the US president. After all, the United States has a vital interest in warm relations with influential Turkey. It is logical that a draft resolution that proposes to consider Turkey an important strategic partner of America should have already been submitted to the US Congress.
The draft resolution also calls for 29 October to be celebrated annually as Republic Day in the United States. Once it is approved by the House of Representatives, the following sentence will be added to it: "Turkey, which is strengthening its democracy, is a source of stability in its region." Naturally, it contradicts the national interest of the United States to confront a source of stability in this important region for the sake of the "Armenian question".
Q: Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi and Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov adopted a joint declaration in Urmiye last Saturday. What is your comment on this?
A: This is one more step by Turkey to consolidate its own position in the region and, consequently, in dialogue with the United States. In addition, it marks the success of Azerbaijani diplomacy and competent work to strengthen the isolation of Armenia, which cynically ignores international law and refuses to free the occupied territories of Azerbaijan, the territorial integrity of which is recognized throughout the world.
As we know, Armenia maintains no relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey and has strained relations with Georgia because of Samtskhe-Javakhetia [a part of Georgia largely inhabited by ethnic Armenians]. Its ties with Russia aren't completely smooth either, it's just servile subordination. As for Iran, Armenia will not be able to use this factor after the Azerbaijan-Turkey-Iran bloc has been created. Armenia has backed itself into a corner and will have to pay dear to get out of it.
Q: What losses may Armenia suffer?
A: Very different ones; for example, confrontation between the Armenian diaspora worldwide and the Armenian leadership may deepen.
The Armenian leadership needs to solve the country's socio-economic problems, otherwise there is a real danger that social rebellion will happen in Armenia and forces able to rally the entire dissatisfied electorate will seize power. These problems are impossible to solve without Armenia being involved in successful regional projects and without relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan. This means that the Armenian leadership will have to make concessions on either the mythical "genocide", or on the settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. Given that the “Armenian genocide” is a factor uniting Armenians across the globe, Yerevan will more likely make concessions on resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
And now, apparently, the Armenian leadership is considering how to make public these compromises with minimum losses.
Akper Hasanov
News.Az
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