Interview with Oqtay Sadikhzade, political scientist.
Q: Today marks 17 years since the signing of a ceasefire treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia. What impact did this event have on the subsequent negotiations on peaceful solution of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
A: Negotiations were very hard over the past 17 years. Meanwhile, negotiations continue, but they are of unstable and imitating nature. Today it is difficult to predict how effective the so-called updated Madrid proposal submitted to the conflicting parties by the OSCE Minsk Group will be.
It should also be noted that the Bishkek protocol on suspension of hostilities over Karabakh between Azerbaijan and Armenia was signed 17 years ago in an entirely different geopolitical situation than today. Now the balance of geopolitical forces is quite different. Azerbaijan has military and political superiority at the moment.
Q: According to Defense Ministry reports, Armenians violate ceasefire almost every day.
A: The ceasefire is violated every day. Therefore, it is hard to describe the current situation as a ceasefire. It is, rather, a kind of transition from military phase of confrontation to another stage. Armenia still goes ahead with imitational actions. So, today we see the situation of no war, no peace.
The OSCE Minsk Group may well be accused of failing to push Armenia to take more constructive approach to the conflict resolution and to put pressure on Yerevan. As a result, fair solution to the conflict is still not in place.
Q: May the frequent ceasefire violations lead to resumed hostilities?
A: It has been talked about much lately. The main threat today is that the current uncertain state of the settlement process can evolve into to large-scale hostilities. Azerbaijani side has already warned about this announcing that if Armenia further delays the conflict settlement, Azerbaijan will sooner or later liberate its lands by force. The negotiations can not last for eternal.
Anyway, there is a need for a pressure on Armenia from the international community to influence Armenia which does not give up trying to imitate participation in the negotiations.
However, I would not rule out possibility of renewed hostilities with a view to ensuring the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan.
Leyla Tagiyeva
News.Az
| < Prev | Next > |
|---|
