Interview with Alexander Sotnichenko, associate professor of international relations at St Petersburg State University.
Q: As part of the Group of Eight summit, the presidents of Russia and the United States issued a joint statement on Nagorno-Karabakh which called on presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan to finalize the basic principles in June this year. What is the reason for optimism of super powers: real closeness of the parties to peace or a desire to show that the Karabakh problem has not receded into the background of world agenda?
A: I think Barack Obama has made a good political capital on peacemaking. He has to justify his Nobel Peace Prize before his voters and he has to make twice more efforts to do so due to deteriorating situation in Libya. For example, there was an unprecedented statement on Israel. However, as we understand, it does not mean that tomorrow the U.S. will announce sanctions against Israel till the withdrawal of troops and population to the borders of 1967.
The Deauville statement is of advisory nature, so it does not envisage any sanctions for the party that evades it. The statement was made on behalf of the OSCE Minsk Group, an organization which has been trying unsuccessfully to settle the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict for nearly 20 years. The statements will have no serious impact on situation in South Caucasus.
Q: Russian and U.S. leaders have also stated that repeated use of force will bring only new sufferings and ruins and will be condemned by international community. Is the threat of war really so great?
A: The threat of war is always great if the two neighboring states constantly threaten each other and build up their military capabilities. The temptation to solve the problem by military means might prove too great in terms of military and economic dominance of Azerbaijan.
Q: In general, after reading the statement by presidents of Russia and the U.S., it seems that it is more addressed to Azerbaijan than Armenia. Mostly, they try to warn Azerbaijan against attempts to restore its territorial integrity independently in case of efforts by international mediators continue to be failure. What do you think about this?
A: The biggest problem is that leaders of world's leading nations understand inability of existing international organizations to resolve the issue peacefully. I've written repeatedly about the need for active involvement of Russia, Turkey and Iran, the three main actors in international relations in the Caucasus into the process with the exception of extra-regional U.S. and EU.
However, G8, most of whose members are just from the U.S. and the EU, will never allow it to happen. In this respect, the OSCE Minsk Group is like a dog in the manger: being unable to resolve it itself, it does not allow others to interfere. True, we need an initiative to organize a potential regional tripartite commission. However, neither Ankara, neither Moscow nor Tehran will do it fearing a negative reaction from the EU and the U.S.
Leyla Tagiyeva
News.Az
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