Interview with deputy chairman of the parliamentary committee for defense and security of Milli Majlis, political scientist Aydin Mirzazade.
Q: What has been the cause of appeals of the Minsk Group co-chairing presidents in their latest statement to the Karabakh conflict parties?
A: It is worthy to note that over the past two years the similar statements have come not only from the representatives of the Minsk Group co-chairing states but also from the heads of those states. Additionally, it has already been over two years that the head of one of the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, namely the Russian president, is taking a direct part in the meetings of the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia. These facts prove that the meetings between the heads of Azerbaijan and Armenia have moved to a qualitatively new format. All the same, the joint statement of the Minsk Group co-chairing presidents prior to the meeting of the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia in June of this year in Kazan shows that the organization of discussions between the leaders of the conflict parties should not be viewed as an initiative of only the Russian party. In other words, this fact demonstrates the attention paid to Karabakh conflict by the United States and France.
Also earlier the co-chairs were voicing diplomatic appeals to the parties, while now they recommend to the parties to prepare main resolution principles for the Karabakh conflict. For this reason, the conflict parties will have to come up with a definite stance. In this view, I believe that this position must be clarified by the parties in the meeting in Kazan. It all suggests that the parties can reconcile their positions in the problem settlement while meeting in Kazan.
Q: Were the appeals contained in the declarations of the Minsk Group co-chairs addressed mostly to Azerbaijan or Armenia?
A: Naturally, this declaration is made in a diplomatic tone and it does not specify names. But it is clear that when the liberation of lands is at issue, every appeal in statements is addressed to Armenia. On the other hand, For Armenia is a strategic ally for Russia, unlike the United States and France. For this reason, considering this factor, it is necessary to take into account that Russia urges its ally to avoid future mistakes by signing the joint declaration of the presidents. The occupation of Azerbaijani lands brought nothing positive to Armenia. It is left out of all regional projects, this country cannot take part in events and projects, implemented in the region by Azerbaijan, the main state in the South Caucasus.
The state inside Armenia is worsening over this as well as due to other reasons. The recent estimates show that in the event of prolongation of the status quo around Karabakh conflict, the Armenian population will drop to just 1m people by 2010. It will lead to the collapse of the Armenian state. Considering all these factors, the co-chairs diplomatically urge Armenia to think seriously of the future of the country.
Q: Can the activeness of the Russian party in Karabakh settlement change the status quo in this conflict?
A: While earlier Moscow was just trying to show its presence in international and regional affairs despite its presence in Karabakh process, now it is interested in the meetings between Azerbaijan and Armenia. For this reason, on the one hand, Azerbaijan is growing into one of the closest allies of Russia in the region. Therefore, Moscow does not want to lose its contacts with Baku and is showing a greater interest in Azerbaijan’s strengthening year by year.
As for relations with Yerevan, given the historical ties between Russian and Armenian peoples, Armenia’s weakening causes the weakening of Russia’s positions in the South Caucasus. Therefore, Russia seeks to obtain guarantees to the further existence of Armenia through the soonest solution to the Karabakh conflict and on the other hand it tries not to spoil relations with Azerbaijan. However, it should be noted that undoubtedly, the equal approach to conflict parties is not helpful to the problem settlement, but Russia is interested in solving it. Thus, the resolution of the Karabakh conflict for Russia means reduced tensions in its southern borders and protection of its interests in this region.
Q: How can Russia influence Azerbaijan and Armenia to reach a compromise in Karabakh settlement?
A: Russia’s potential to influence Azerbaijan lies in creation of ally relations with Baku. This influence can be made within the framework of friendship, ally relations and presence of mutual interests. As for possible influence on Azerbaijan, it is out of the question.
As for Armenia, one of the Russian leaders described this country as Russia’s outpost. For this reason, Russia can put pressure and influence Armenia in many cases.
Lala B.
News.Az
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