Interview with Dr. Sabine Freizer, Director, Europe Program, International Crisis Group.
Q: The presidents of Russia, France and the USA have issued a statement on the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. Is it a sign of real concern of super-powers about the conflict or just a diplomatic gesture?
A: Clearly the fact that the President of Russia, France and the USA issued a statement on the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh is hugely significant. It is the third such statement, the previous were released on the margins of the G-8 summits in 2009 (L’Aquila, Italy) and 2010 (Muskoka, Canada). It is not often, and on many conflicts, that you see such high level unity and determination between these three countries who are committed to facilitate a settlement and concerned that lack of agreement can lead to war.
This statement goes far beyond the previous two because it clearly warns against the use of force, saying that it would be “condemned by the international community.” The Presidents also pledge that if the basic principles are signed, they will “stand ready to witness the formal acceptance of these Principles, to assist in the drafting of the peace agreement, and then to support its implementation with our international partners.” Not only will the international community provide security guarantees but also substantial reconstruction assistance and expertise.
Finally this time when urging the sides to complete the work on the Basic Principles, the Presidents also warn that “Further delay would only call into question the commitment of the sides to reach an agreement.”
Q: The statement urges the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia "to prepare the public for peace rather than war". How real is a threat of war?
A: The threat of war is steadily increasing and if the signature of the Basic Principles agreement in the coming months relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan are likely to sour as they enter a new election cycle, together with the three co-chair countries who will also be having elections in the coming two years.
International Crisis Group published a report on 8 February entitled Armenian and Azerbaijan: Preventing War where we warned that an arms race, escalating front-line clashes, vitriolic war rhetoric and a slowdown in peace talks are increasing the chance Armenia and Azerbaijan will go back to war over Nagorno-Karabakh. Just take the Azerbaijan’s defence budget: it is supposed to double this year compared to last and reach 20% of the Azeri state budget. Azerbaijan is also purchasing more and more sophisticated weaponry. Of course Armenia is trying to follow, and has cheaper Russian weapons access, but this is a tremendous waste of resources.
Q: The statement urges as well the presidents Aliyev and Sargsyan to finish work on the basic principles for a settlement during their summit in June. Doesn’t this term seem to you too fast?
A: The Presidents and the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs are convinced that all President Aliyev and Sarkissian need to do now is agree to the text. There have been years of discussions about these Basic Principles – no stones have been left unturned. As the Presidents say in their statement ‘’ The latest version of the Basic Principles, as discussed in Sochi on March 5, lays a just and balanced foundation for the drafting of a comprehensive peace settlement.” Now in Kazan in June it will be up to the Presidents to determine if they have the courage to take the historical step needed to pull their countries away from way and towards peace and reconciliation.
Let us remember that these are only principles. After they are agreed the sides will need to sit down with groups of experts and work out the details of a comprehensive agreement which will lead to actual withdrawals from occupied territories, return of displaced persons and refugees, provision of security guarantees and interim status for Nagorno-Karabakh. This may take several months or even years more.
In Kazan we must hope that the Presidents will physically sign the document on Basic Principles and that this text will be made public so that Azerbaijanis and Armenians alike know the basic parameters of the peace they will both have to live with and work towards.
Leyla Tagiyeva
News.Az
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