Interview with Sahib Aliyev, a non-partisan member of Azerbaijan's parliament, the Milli Majlis.
Q: Are the international atmosphere and current relations between the leading powers conducive to progress on a Karabakh conflict settlement at the upcoming Kazan meeting of the Azerbaijani, Russian and Armenian presidents?
A: I do not see any significant difference between the current situation in international relations and the situation that existed in the world and the region six months or a year ago. In other words, the international state of affairs has experienced some changes in recent years. Of course, this may prompt the question on what grounds the international mediators and the conflict parties hope to achieve progress on the Karabakh conflict settlement at the presidents' meeting in Kazan. There are two factors that give hope of progress in the upcoming negotiations.
The first of these is the fact that Azerbaijan is constantly developing and has announced that it will not tolerate the continued occupation of its lands for another 20 years. Naturally, on their part, international centres of power also see the increasing role of Azerbaijan, and this forces the countries co-chairing the OSCE Minsk Group to take concrete steps.
The second factor is the presidential elections to be held in Russia in 2012. Western countries have indirect support for Dmitry Medvedev’s candidacy. And this is reflected in support from the US and Europe for Medvedev’s mediation efforts in the Karabakh talks.
Q: Which side, Azerbaijan or Armenia, has the stronger position prior to the Kazan talks?
A: Naturally, Azerbaijan's position is stronger. Azerbaijan's state budget is several times bigger than the state budget of Armenia. Azerbaijan's military expenditure is 10 times greater than Armenia's. In addition, alongside the economic indicators Azerbaijan has a more stable political situation. This situation is also reflected in the negotiation process. In the light of the above factors, the Armenian side is disowning the results achieved in past negotiations.
Psychological superiority at the presidential level is definitely on the side of Azerbaijan. Psychological superiority at the social level is also on the side of Azerbaijan. While in the recent past the Armenian side threatened to occupy another part of Azerbaijan in the event of the resumption of war, the situation has now changed.
Now those in Armenia fear that Azerbaijan may start fighting to liberate its occupied territories. This kind of psychological advantage is very important. Maintaining the status quo in the Karabakh conflict represents a danger for Armenia first and foremost.
Q: Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov recently spoke about the possibility of deploying on the frontline international peacekeeping forces from countries that are not neighbours of Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as from the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairing countries. May the countries involved in resolution of the Karabakh conflict agree with this formation of a peacekeeping force?
A: As you know, the issue of deployment of international peacekeepers in the conflict zone was first discussed at the OSCE Budapest summit in 1994. Back then Moscow insisted that the Russian army should make up the vast majority of the peacekeeping contingent. However, the OSCE opposed this. Instead, the OSCE suggested that Russia should account for 30% of the peacekeeping force. True, the parties agreed that the countries neighbouring on Azerbaijan and Armenia, as well as the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairing countries, cannot be included in the peacekeeping force.
Azerbaijan is not a supporter of placing peacekeepers in the conflict zone and does not advocate this initiative. The ceasefire in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict is continuing, even without the presence of peacekeepers in the region. Moreover, if Armenia initially withdraws from the occupied Azerbaijani lands, the incidents on the frontline separating troops in Karabakh will end. In other words, Azerbaijan and Armenia can maintain the ceasefire without the presence of peacekeepers.
Lala B.
News.Az
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