Interview with Amanda Paul, Policy Analyst, EU Eastern Neighbourhood, Russia, Turkey & Eurasia Issues, European Policy Centre, Bruxelles.
Q: What is the best way for Azerbaijan to develop and ensure its security – the way towards European integration or closer relation with Russia?
A: The best way for Azerbaijan to guarantee its security is to find a peaceful settlement to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Armenia. This will present the cornerstone for Azerbaijani security but also for the greater security in the region as a whole. Azerbaijan is situation at an important geostrategic juncture and as has been very successfully carrying out a balanced foreign policy. On the one had it has good relations with Moscow while on the other it is increasingly engaged with the Euro-Atlantic institutions, including the EU. The further Azerbaijan integrates with the EU, the more this process will act as a tool for increased democracy, freedoms and European styles values in the country. Therefore this process also represents a path for greater security and stability for the country.
Q: How sincere can Russia be as a mediator in the Karabakh settlement after war against Georgia in 2008?
A: For a long time the trend has been to say that Russia supports the status quo vis-à-vis the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict because at first sight it seems that Russia has nothing to gain by a solution and rather much to lose. However, after the Russia-Georgia war Moscow seems to have moved slightly away from this position, preferring not to be seen not as a creator of troubles and conflict in the region but at proactive conflict resolution player. To this end Moscow has taken the lead in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution process, holding regular Troika's with the Azerbaijani's and Armenian's and pushing them make progress on the Basic Principles.
Of course, Russia clearly wants to maintain a strong influence in this region not least economically and vis-à-vis security, but at the same time it wants to be seen as a credible international player. Moreover, Russia does not want another war in its back-yard (having tight security relations with Armenia could put Russia in an extremely uncomfortable position in the case of a new war).
With concern that the current status quo may not hold Russia is acting to get dynamic back into the process of peace negotiations which should cool the tensions on the line of contact which escalated in 2010 (principally as a result of developments in the Turkey-Armenia rapproachement. Moreover, with the Sochi winter Olympics slated 2014 for Moscow desires stability and peace in the region.
Q: What are you expectations from upcoming meeting of presidents Aliyev and Sargsyan in Kazan? Do you share optimism of the U.S., Russia and France presidents which has called Azerbaijan and Armenia to finish work on the basic principles for a settlement during their summit in June?
A: In this period in the run up to a new cycle of elections there is a window of opportunity to reach a final agreement on the set of basic principles.
The call from the three Presidents was the strongest statement we have seen for some time. Further delay will only call into question the commitment of both sides to reach an agreement. Although I hope we might get a miracle and the two leaders will sign on the dotted line, I am not sure that this will be the case although one can expect further progress to be made. Still I keep my fingers crossed because the peoples of this region deserve to live in peace, including for the almost one million Azerbaijani's to be able to return back to their lands which are currently under Armenian occupation.
Q: The American, Russian and French presidents have urged the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia "to prepare the public for peace rather than war". Can you foresee reaction of super-powers if case of a new war?
A: It is the responsibility of both leaderships to prepare their populations for a peace deal and to stop with negative rhetoric, and fairy tale scenarios for unrealistic outcomes. Unfortunately until now neither side has done this but has preferred to focus on aggressive war talk rather than explaining that peace means compromises including on optimal outcomes and goals. Both Aliyev and Sargsyan are pragmatic men and have so far managed to sabre-rattle and not stepped over the red line. However, once the red line into a real war has been crossed there will be no going back and it will be devastating for the entire region.
Therefore it is the responsibility of the international community and super powers to do its utmost to prevent such an outcome. To be proactive rather than reactive.
Leyla Tagiyeva
News.Az
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