Interview with Rasim Musabayov, MP and political scientist.
Q: What risks do the basic principles of Karabakh settlement carry in themselves for the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, given that the envision signing of a document by the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia during their visit to Kazan in late June?
A: Basic principles meet the interests of Azerbaijan. I think these principles also meet the interests of Armenia and the overall development of the region. The moments like liberation of a part of occupied Azerbaijani lands, deployment of international peacekeeping contingent between the conflict parties, conduction of a referendum to define the status of Nagorno Karabakh, operaning of communication lines, envisioned in the basic principles, are the components of the single peace agreement. All the same, I have to note that it all cannot be achieved if the Armenian occupational troops do not withdraw from the Azerbaijani lands.
Q: Will all components of basic principles of Karabakh settlement become real?
A: Certainly, implementation of each of the indicated components depends on whether the conflict will be settled peacefully or through war. The main points is whether Armenia, with its impoverished population of 2-2.5m people begging for aid and transfers from diaspora through haunting the doorways of international organizations and the states will be compliant in fulfilling these components. On the other hand, there is an example of Azerbaijan that always complies with its commitments. However, it should be taken into account that the economy and the population of Azerbaijan overtop the Armenian by seven and three times respectively. For this reason, if the problem is not settled peacefully, Armenia’s defeat will be just a matter of time.
Q: How can a referendum to define the status of Nagorno Karabakh affect Azerbaijan?
A: If the referendum will fix the will about the status of Karabakh, this expression of a will must be equal to the status of the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. The status of Nagorno Karabakh cannot be defined only by the Armenian population. Karabakh also had the Azerbaijani population that flee their homes. They have the same rights with the Armenian community of Karabakh. Therefore, if someone is trying to interpret this issue unilaterally, that is as a mechanism which can cause Karabakh secession from Azerbaijan, they are mistaken, since it will never be so.
Q: Both Azerbaijani and Armenian parties, and a number of countries in the region are concerned over the issue of a peacekeeping contingent that might be deployed in the Karabakh conflict area. Which form of such a peacekeeping contingent would be fitting for both sides?
A: I suppose these issues are being negotiated. It has definite restrictions, according to which the peacekeeping contingent cannot include the militaries of the Minsk Group co-chairing countries, as well as the countries neighboring Azerbaijan and Armenia. The deployment of the militaries of one of these countries into the peacekeeping conflict would create clashes between the states.
In fact, the future peacekeeping contingent may include militaries from Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, as well as Finland, Sweden and Austria. In this case, we do not mean the peacekeeping contingent of 10,000-20,000 people. Peacekeepers in Karabakh will mostly do the observation, since when conflict parties show goodwill, they can preserve peace with even a limited number of peacekeepers.
Q: Are there chances to sign any document on basic principles of Karabakh settlement at the Kazan meeting of the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia and which issues can be reflected in this document?
A: As far as I know, the protocol by which the parties will announce that they accept Madrid principles, will allow to start works to prepare the framework peace agreement. Meanwhile, the co-chairing states will be the guarantors, given that the Madrid principles will likely not be published. This formula will likely be applied to avoid resistance inside Azerbaijan and Armenia. Additionally, I believe that the document will fix moments and record measures to strengthen ceasefire regime. It may also reflect the issues of reducing military rhetoric, humanitarian issues and measures raising mutual trust among parties. Such a protocol is likely to be signed in Kazan. As the protocol will not directly fix all moments of Madrid principles, this document has a chance to be adopted in Kazan.
Lala B.
News.Az
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