Amanda Paul – Today’s Zaman
The unpredictable security situation in the South Caucasus is of increasing concern to Europe. While the situation in Georgia is far from ideal, it is at least contained.
It is the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the Azerbaijani region of Nagorno-Karabakh that is the most dangerous and the most significant obstacle to peace and stability in the region.
More than 15 years since the cease-fire agreement was signed, Armenia and Azerbaijan have been unable to find the political will to reach an agreement, or sign any sort of meaningful document that could bring them a step closer to peace. While there have been a number of occasions when an agreement seemed near, at the end of the day the talks crashed and burned. In the meantime, lives continue to be lost across the line of contact, including civilians -- even innocent children, when sniper bullets go astray. In Azerbaijan some 800,000 internally displaced persons (IDP) are still waiting to return to their homes. Not just in Nagorno-Karabakh (which was predominantly populated by ethnic Armenians before the war), but more so in the seven other Azerbaijani regions that Armenia occupied during the war and now uses as a “security buffer zone” between Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh.
While Azerbaijan continues talk of war to regain these lands (some 17 percent of the country), Armenia responds by signaling Armenia is ready for war. Hate propaganda continues while confidence building measures remain limited and have so far had very little impact on the way Armenians and Azerbaijanis define each other. It is an extremely sad situation for two peoples that are so similar and have so much in common. The more time that passes, the more difficult it is to find an “exit,” and the more likely renewed warfare becomes, which would be devastating for the entire region. Skyrocketing military spending and ongoing cease-fire violations are all gloomy signs that time for a peaceful settlement may be running out. Shared memories of cohabitation are fading, with the divide becoming increasingly unbridgeable. There is an urgent need to get a fresh dynamic back into the negotiations as well as a counter to the hate propaganda. We need more confidence building, particularly steps to engage youth in joint projects on all sides.
For those covering the conflict, all eyes are now on the forthcoming troika meeting between the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on June 25 in the Russian city of Kazan. There is some optimism that progress may be made, particularly in light of a recent meeting between the two foreign ministers, Elmar Mammadyarov and Edward Nalbandian, which has been described in the media as making “significant progress,” stating “the sides managed to bring their positions closer on a number of issues of the Basic Principles of the Karabakh settlement.” However, this is not the first time such a statement has been made and there was also no word on the issues that progress was apparently made on. The foreign ministers’ meeting also came just days after US, Russian and French diplomats co-chairing the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group ended yet another tour of the conflict zone issuing a joint statement that urged the leaders to finalize the “Basic Principles,” drafted by the three mediating powers, at their next meeting. They also called upon the parties “to avoid any provocative actions or statements that might undermine the negotiating process during this critical period.”
Last week, the European Parliament also held a public hearing on Nagorno-Karabakh. The European Parliament has really been the only EU institution to give any meaningful attention to the conflict, and in May 2010 came up with a report calling for a larger EU role in the South Caucasus with specific recommendations for the EU, including Nagorno-Karabakh.
Among the speakers at the meeting were two-thirds of the Minsk Group -- the French and the Americans. The Russian representative, however, was nowhere to be seen. This was a pity because it is very much the Russians who are driving the process nowadays. Andrzej Kasprzyk, who has been heading up the OSCE’s small team that has monitored the line of contact for more than a decade, was also present. While Kasprzyk reported that 17 people had been killed so far this year on the line of contact (including a 9-year-old Azerbaijani boy), he said this was positive as this represented a decrease on a year ago (35 lives were lost in 2010). The French and American co-chairs expressed quiet optimism that something positive would come out of Kazan.
However, it seems to me that agreement is still out of reach. Firstly, neither side is showing enough political will to reach a final agreement; nor have they begun to take steps to prepare their societies for the compromises that such an agreement would necessitate. Both leaders are still talking about maximum goals. In the case of Azerbaijan, this amounts to Nagorno-Karabakh remaining part of Azerbaijan, and for Armenia the exact opposite.
| < Prev | Next > |
|---|
