Interview with the chairman of the Islamic Committee of Russia, political scientist Heydar Jemal.
Q: How realistic is it that the Russian, Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents will decide on a draft framework for a settlement to the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh at their upcoming Kazan meeting?
A: In my opinion, there is no sense in the Kazan meeting of the presidents of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia. It will not achieve any breakthrough solutions that could lead to settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh in the short term.
By and large, this meeting is necessary only to increase the personal rating of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in the run-up to the presidential elections in Russia. In addition, this is another opportunity to demonstrate that Russia is still the arbiter able to play a decisive role in resolving conflicts in the South Caucasus region.
Q: If there is no breakthrough on a conflict settlement at the Kazan meeting, how likely is it that Azerbaijan will renew hostilities in the region?
A: You are absolutely right. This kind of chance will increase substantially. By and large, this would leave no alternatives to a military solution to the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. And here it is important to understand how fighting may develop. If Azerbaijan wages war in its territories occupied by Armenia, this will not give Russia or anyone else grounds to intervene as Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity is recognized by the whole world.
The downside of this scenario is that the other country, in this case Armenia, will fight against Azerbaijan on the latter's own territory. Consequently, it would be better for Azerbaijan not to fight with Armenia in its territory. But there is a risk that Russia can act against Azerbaijan. Consequently, Azerbaijan needs to wait for the moment when Russia will be in a situation when it would not care about Karabakh and would not be able to support Armenia in its war with Azerbaijan.
Q: Is it possible that such a moment will come?
A: Of course, it is possible. The current ongoing crisis in the world will soon deprive Russia of many opportunities, including opportunities to provide active support to Armenia.
Q: Iran, as well as Russia, is assisting Armenia. May Iranian-Azerbaijani relations cool as a result?
A: A lot depends on whether Azerbaijan will be able to warm relations with Iran. During the rule of the Popular Front and President Abulfaz Elchibey, Azerbaijan did everything possible to worsen relations with Iran. In these circumstances, Iran was forced to establish relations with Armenia. Now there is a complete reformatting of the situation in the Middle East. US President Barack Obama has a new game that offers opportunities for allied relations between Azerbaijan and Iran, and therefore to isolate Armenia.
There are powerful anti-Armenian and pro-Azerbaijani forces in Iran. Simply, it is necessary to use them wisely. Similarly, there is great potential to deepen Azerbaijani-Turkish relations. In general, if Azerbaijan wisely responds to the changing geo-political situation, it will have every opportunity to isolate not only Armenia, but also Russia to some extent.
Akper Hasanov
News.Az
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