Interview with Mikhail Delyagin, director of the Moscow-based Institute for Globalization Affairs.
Q: How do you assess the current state of the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
A: I really liked Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov’s statement that if the Kazan meeting makes progress, this will bring peace to the region. That is, nobody is speaking about a final solution of the problem. Nobody is talking about a breakthrough. But he said that if progress is achieved, it will already secure peace. That is very good. Firstly, this gives us some hope that progress will be achieved, and secondly, that war will not happen.
Q: Is it possible to achieve a breakthrough in resolution of the Karabakh conflict?
A: I think there will be no breakthrough. There will be some minor steps forward and this will suit all at this stage. Therefore, we will get not an escalation of tension, but its decline.
Q: May the conflict be solved by war if expectations are not eventually met?
A: Baku has talked about possible war for several years. I believe if no progress is made any time soon, the tension along the contact line will grow. But I don’t think it will be a full-fledged war.
Q: As a mediator, Russia is more active than the US and France.
A: This is natural as there are big Azerbaijani and Armenian diasporas in Russia. There have been inter-ethnic clashes between Armenians and Azerbaijanis in Russia which never took place before. So, if a war starts in Nagarno-Karabakh, Moscow will have to think what to do with the diaspora within the country.
Q: So, maybe it's worth giving up the format for settlement under the auspices of the OSCE Minsk Group and switching to a Baku-Moscow-Yerevan format?
A: France has proved its ability to intervene intelligently in a conflict as in the case of the conflict in South Ossetia. As we remember, it was Nicolas Sarkozy who played a significant role in preventing escalation of the conflict. So, I think, one should not target France. Well, it would not be very good to target the United States when Moscow and Washington seem to be in the process of resetting their relations. So, the current situation will continue from a purely political viewpoint.
From a diplomatic viewpoint, it would also be better to leave things as they are. Why? At least for the reason that one needs to view the issue from several angles.
Q: How serious an influence does the situation in Armenia have on the Karabakh conflict resolution?
A: It affects all the countries to a certain degree. As to Armenia, it has failed to normalize its economy yet.
There's quite a large number of poor people who are very easy to distract from the current problems through patriotism.
Naturally, territorial concessions to Azerbaijan may cause a decline in the authority of the country’s leadership. Therefore, today we are talking not about major shifts, but gradual resolution.
Hamid Hamidov (Moscow)
News.Az
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