Beril Dedeoğlu – Today’s Zaman
The recent electoral victory of the Justice and Development Party (AK Party), which has held on to power thanks to the support of half of Turkey’s population, may motivate several countries to clarify their policy towards Turkey.
There is, however, some bad news for people in Europe who oppose Turkey’s accession to the EU on the grounds of their opposition to Turkey’s Muslim majority: While they will probably not have to deal with Turkey inside the EU for many years to come, they will nonetheless have to work together with Turkey in the European Council, NATO and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the near future with increasing frequency. So, maybe it is time for them to decide about Turkey.
We have to admit that the election outcome augurs a difficult period for those who were hoping to get rid of the AK Party and to see Turkey governed by a neocon-like approach. Regardless of the debate about whether or not the AK Party is functioning in a fully democratic manner, this party is the political actor that democratized Turkey. Those in bordering countries, from Armenia to Syria, who want democracy in their countries are encouraged by the AK Party’s victory; in return, this party has become a disturbing actor in the eyes of many governments in the Caucasus and in the Middle-East.
Turkey is not capable of dictating every outcome in the region by itself. However, it is capable of pressuring Syria to implement reforms, and if Turkey manages to do that, it may do the same in Azerbaijan, Armenia and Israel in a more credible manner. These countries can tell Turkey to start by cleaning its own house first, but the Turkish people have just demonstrated their will and readiness to tidy up their country. The Turkish government is also aware that Turkey will be more efficient in the surrounding region once Turkey’s domestic problems are resolved.
It appears that Armenia and Israel have understood the Turkish voters’ message and that they follow Turkey’s domestic political developments very closely. They probably predict that a party which has won three consecutive elections and which benefits from the support of 50 percent of the people will feel free to take more audacious steps in foreign policy.
Recent press reports indicate that these two countries have already begun to test their predictions. The Israeli government relentlessly announces that it wants to normalize its relations with Turkey, and the latter has confirmed that negotiations have been taking place for some time with Israeli officials. As for Armenia, it has expressed its will to initiate talks with Turkey “without conditions.” These press reports also intend to test the reaction of the Turkish public to these developments, but what is more important is that they prove that these two countries are trying to normalize their relations with Turkey.
The normalization of Turkey’s relations with Israel and Armenia will make it difficult for the EU to reach a decision about Turkey, because it’s easier to say no when our relations are on bad terms with our neighbors. Nevertheless, the EU’s decision about Turkey is of crucial importance for the restructuration of the Middle East and the Caucasus.
The fate of Palestine is not so disconnected from the fate of Nagorno-Karabakh. Everybody knows that the developments in Palestine have an effect on Iran, Syria, Jordan and Lebanon, but one mustn’t minimize its effects on Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan, or on Nagorno-Karabakh, Ossetia and Abkhazia. Moreover, the developments in all these regions have an influence on maintaining the balance between Russia, the US and the EU. The Armenia-Turkey-Israel line has a decisive importance as the tone of their relations with each other will facilitate a way for others in the region to find their place in this balance. In brief, the existing conditions require rapprochement between these three countries.
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