Interview with Iulian Chifu, director of Romania's Conflict Prevention and Early Warning Centre.
Q: The presidents of Azerbaijan, Russia and Armenia did not sign any document at the Karabakh summit in Kazan. Is this a pessimistic sign?
A: No, it was in line with what experts expected, since the mediator, Russia, lacks credibility as it has already made war in the region, occupied two regions of neighbouring Georgia and recognized unilaterally their independence and, also, since the road map that has been presented is marked by differences on the return of refugees, the withdrawal of Armenian troops from Azeri districts and Nagorno-Karabakh and the integrity of Azerbaijan within its internationally recognized borders.
The special status of Nagorno-Karabakh inside Azerbaijan is a decision for the sovereign Azerbaijani state and for the inhabitants of Nagorno-Karabakh, once they have returned home and settled into their properties and after the free election of legitimate representatives in the region.
Q: President Obama had telephone conversations with Presidents Aliyev and Sargsyan before the Kazan meeting. Was this just a diplomatic gesture or a real indication of US interests in stability in this region?
A: It is more a diplomatic, but also a political gesture aimed at encouraging both sides to reach a compromise, and supporting talks. It doesn’t really mean that the US has more or less interest in the region; its interest is a constant.
Q: What should be done to move the Karabakh process forward?
A: A step by step approach: the withdrawal of Armenian troops and administration from the Azeri districts and from Nagorno-Karabakh and the return of refugees to the region, with UN help. Then democratization and de-criminalization of the region, organizing free and fair elections in the region. Afterwards a referendum could decide on Nagorno-Karabakh's status inside the borders and under the sovereignty of Azerbaijan.
Q: Does the absence of progress increase the threat of a new war in the region?
A: I don’t think so. The side that begins war will lose territory and legitimacy. But some shooting on the contact line and casualties could happen and the issue could be part of election campaigning, especially in Armenia.
F.H.
News.Az
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