The Armenian government is trying to incite a war with Azerbaijan to avoid internal political and economic problems.
Araz Azimov, the deputy foreign minister of Azerbaijan, told a group of Turkish reporters on Friday that the government in Yerevan is looking to start an armed conflict with Azerbaijan in order to consolidate its power at home and distract attention away from increasingly unbearable economic hardship.
'[Armenian President Serzh] Sargsyan is under tremendous pressure from the opposition in his country. The economy is performing terribly. The diaspora is not happy with him. If he succeeds in provoking a conflict with us, he will secure aid from abroad and crush the opposition inside as people will gather around his cause,' he explained.
The incidents along the ceasefire line should be interpreted with this in mind, Azimov underlined.
Just last week, a 13-year-old girl was killed by a toy with a built-in explosive that had allegedly been floated down the river by an Armenian. The girl’s mother was seriously injured as well. Similar incidents have happened in the past, Azimov said, all aimed to cause unrest amongst the people in Azerbaijan hoping that there would be widespread clashes along the disputed borders.
An Azerbaijani diplomat warned, however, that the repercussions of a new war would have dire consequences for Armenia. 'We are prepared for any eventualities and have beefed up our army,' he said, adding that the army is more than capable of preventing any aggression from Armenia. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said that during Armed Forces Day celebrations last month, 'Azerbaijan fulfilled the task that I set, which was that Azerbaijan’s military expenditure must exceed the entire state budget of Armenia,' noting that defence spending in the oil-rich country had reached $3.3 billion this year.
When asked what the game plan was for Azerbaijan if the crisis turned into war, the veteran diplomat said, “Then everything will change.” Stating that he himself had experienced war when the Soviets invaded Afghanistan, Azimov said Azerbaijani forces would likely conduct a mop-up operation in the Azerbaijani territories currently under illegal Armenian occupation.
“International law allows us to send an army to fight anti-terror operations on our own lands. You can say that the Armenian forces are behaving like a terrorist group, killing innocent people on Azerbaijani soil,” he explained. He vowed that Azerbaijani forces would sweep any elements of terror away from its own territory.
Armenia is buying time
Azimov has been closely involved throughout the 18 years of negotiations with Armenia under the so called Minsk process created by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).
“We had ups and downs during that period. But it has become increasingly clear that Yerevan is not interested in finding a solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh issue at all. Sargsyan has backtracked from earlier compromises we had brokered with Armenia especially during the 2004-2007 period. Last year, he rejected the Madrid II principles proposed by the Minsk group in Athens in 2009. He refused to discuss the details of the Laçin corridor linking Azerbaijan to the autonomous Nakhchivan Republic via Armenian territory. Now in a reversal from his predecessor’s position, Sargsyan is saying internally displaced Azerbaijanis can not return to their homes before the final status of Karabakh is finalized,” Azimov explained.
As for the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, the Azerbaijani diplomat expressed that there might be different formulas for the internal self-determination or self-governance within the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan.
“But we need to withdraw forces from this region, allow displaced people to return to their homes and invest in the economy. Once we create the right conditions on the ground, we will agree to whatever decision the residents of Nagorno-Karabakh make in the referendum” he said.
The frustrated diplomat warned that Azerbaijan’s patience is wearing thin towards the protracted negotiations that have no end in sight. “There is nothing concrete on the table,” he lamented. Stressing that both countries need to move beyond discussing the basic principles of an action pan on the ground, the Azerbaijani diplomat noted there should be a “deadline” for the negotiations.
“We have discussed principles for so long but it has not produced any result. Now we need to talk about the substance,” he said, adding that the parties should come to an agreement on that within a year.
Lambasting Russia and Iran
Deputy Foreign Minister Azimov did not hide his strong disapproval of Russian and Iranian assistance to Armenia, two countries that have provided a lifeline to Armenia’s beleaguered economy. “Russia has control of 70 percent of the Armenian economy. The border has been protected by Russian soldiers. They provide assistance to Armenian forces as well,” he said.
As for the Iran, Azimov said the Azerbaijani government does not approve the cozy relations Iran has established with its arch-enemy, Armenia. “We have told them this on many occasions. Iran has over 40 agreements with Armenia and providing gas, oil and other critical supplies to the country. They do that despite the betrayal of Armenia over the Iranian initiative back in 1992,” he said.
Azimov was referring to the May 1992 meeting in Tehran during which both Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders signed a memorandum of understanding for the cessation of hostilities as proposed by the Iranian leadership at the time. Right after that, Armenia attacked more Azerbaijani territory, breaking the agreement.
“If Iran closes its border with Armenia just like Turkey does, Yerevan may be pushed back to a position to end the occupation of Azerbaijani territory,” he said. Azimov hinted that the relations with the US and Israel, the pipeline politics and problems in the Caspian energy resources may have a role to play in Iran’s involvement with Armenia. “Iran wants to show that it is a regional power to be reckoned with. But we are not comfortable with their policy vis-à-vis Armenia,” he noted.
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