Interview with Azerbaijani political expert Leyla Aliyeva.
Q: On 9 August, Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev discussed the Karabakh conflict with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Sochi, while he will do the same at a meeting with Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan in Kazakhstan on 12 August. Do you expect success from these meetings?
A: Russia itself will remain within certain limitations until it changes and until the political situation changes. These limitations of domestic politics are reflected in Russia's ability to resolve conflicts. I can see serious changes neither within Russia itself nor in its interests. Therefore, I do not think that there could be some serious progress in Russia’s mediation.
Q: Then how can you explain Russian President Medvedev's active mediation?
A: They will hold elections next year. The pre-election situation and foreign policy also play a role here. Western countries are now more preoccupied with their own problems, and Russia is trying to use this in an attempt to regain its influence in the Karabakh conflict after what happened in Georgia.
Everybody understands that if the Karabakh conflict is resolved, whoever helped reach a settlement will hold sway in this region. Russia, therefore, wants to show that it holds the key to the Karabakh conflict and that it can turn this key. But in reality, the key turns only so far.
Q: Do you see any chances of a final resolution of this conflict?
A: Breakthrough can be achieved only through strong political dynamics in all three countries.
Q: Is Russia the third country?
A: Yes, Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia. Geographically, the region is not in the critical interests of the EU or US. Relative stability is maintained. Stability in this region is sufficient to meet the fundamental interests of all the great powers. Therefore, a crucial breakthrough in the Karabakh conflict depends on the conflicting sides themselves, and on Russia, but only, I repeat, if the political situation in all three countries changes.
Q: Did the 2008 Russia-Georgia war speed up resolution of the Karabakh conflict?
A: It also intensified diplomatic activity, scared the participants in the Karabakh conflict a little and prevented military ventures. It was, therefore, a deterrent and the August war actually in some way contributed to the continuation of the status quo. But this foreign diplomatic activity is still not enough to achieve a breakthrough in resolving the conflict.
| < Prev | Next > |
|---|
