Interview with Azer Babayev, Research Fellow at Peace Research Institute Frankfurt (PRİF) and Doctor of Political Sciences.
Q: Might Russia’s intensification in resolution of the Karabakh conflict promote progress in this conflict settlement?
A: It is clear that Russia is a country that can best contribute to the resolution of the Karabakh conflict, because Russia in comparison to other external forces has an ample opportunity to influence the parties to the conflict, in particular, Armenia.
The special role of Russia, along with the fact that it is the largest state, also lies in the fact that the country is located in this region. Given the historical factors, it is impossible not to see that Russia has a greater capacity to deal with conflict. Thus, Russia who has intensified in the peace process of Karabakh settlement is able to find a common ground with the parties to the conflict.
Q: Does Russia benefit from the resolution of the Karabakh conflict?
A: Overall, it should be noted that Russia does not benefit from the conflict solution, at least, it was so recently. Karabakh conflict plays a role of the main chain that binds Azerbaijan and Armenia to Russia. The activeness demonstrated by President Dmitriy Medvedev is likely connected with the upcoming presidential elections in Russia, since any important achievements in the peace process on Karabakh settlement will raise his influence both inside the country and in the West. Thus, Medvedev will raise his chances for the next term of presidency. On the other hand, Russia’s constructive contribution to the conflict settlement will also strengthen its positions in the post-Soviet space.
The 2008 war in Georgia diminished regional trust in Russia. Even Belarus which is considered the closest ally of Russia became more cautious in the relations with Moscow.
Q: How may Russia act in case of a new way?
A: Russia’s reaction against Georgia in 2008 already has a precedent of its conduct in similar situations. But I think that direct armed intervention of Russia in case of a new war between Azerbaijan and Armenia is unlikely. I suppose that Russia will try to influence the result and process of war indirectly. Overall, I think that official Moscow is not interested in this war. I can say for sure that Russia will try to hamper the new war between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Q: US and France are satisfied that Russian President independently organizes meetings between Azerbaijan and Armenia to discuss ways to solve the Karabakh conflict. Does this mean that the US and the EU have no interest in this conflict?
A: It is clearly seen that in recent years Russia has taken over a major initiative to resolve the Karabakh conflict. Western powers for their part accept this reality because they understand that it is impossible to effectively deal with the conflict in absence of a will on the part of Russia. Given that the Karabakh conflict is not one of the priority interests for the United States and the European Union, we can understand the reason for West’s observation position on this issue.
In general, the West believes that Azerbaijan and Armenia are small states, and the conflict existing between them is not of particular significance for the world order. In other words, the West has a superficial approach to the Karabakh conflict settlement. Along with this, it is believed that the military-political status quo related to the Karabakh conflict has been formed, there is a relative "peace", some regional projects are being implemented, etc. So, West does not see any "pressing" motive to solve the problem and it is used to this situation. In addition, it should be noted that it requires some resources and efforts to change the situation. However, it is noticeable that Western forces are still not ready for this.
Q: May active involvement of the United States and the European Union in Karabakh conflict settlement bring real and effective results?
A: Of course, it may. However, the West sees Karabakh conflict as the most difficult problem of the South Caucasus. Therefore, influence of external forces on the issue is not appropriate given that the region, in particular, Azerbaijan is a country where interests of various social forces come in contact.
In this case, the poor thing is not that Western forces do not put specific pressure on aggressor country. The West showed a different position in a conflict between Russia and Georgia in 2008. In addition to South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Russian forces temporarily occupied other Georgian land. However, such a powerful country like Russia was forced to withdraw from these lands under a strong pressure from the West.
There is no such pressure against Armenia, which, in turn, is a factor not contributing to peaceful resolution of the Karabakh conflict. In general, both West and Russia are trying to maintain the situation where there are no hostilities. Either way, the external forces are well aware that Karabakh’s “independence” or its joining Armenia is possible only with the consent of leadership and people of Azerbaijan.
Lala B.
News.Az
| < Prev | Next > |
|---|
