Interview with Dr Hakan Gunes, associate professor at Istanbul University's Faculty of Political Studies.
Q: Is the normalization of Turkish-Armenian ties still on the table and what role does this issue play in the Karabakh settlement process?
A: The normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations requires progress in resolution of the Karabakh conflict. Dialogue needs to be created between the parties in order for this problem to be settled. We should not expect the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations first and only then the resolution of the Karabakh conflict, or vice versa. The Karabakh conflict must be settled first to be followed by normalizing ties between Turkey and Armenia. These issues must be settled simultaneously, as the main regional project.
Q: Ties between Turkey and Russia have been invigorated in recent years. Can these ties play a positive role in the settlement of conflicts in the South Caucasus?
A: Naturally, the development of relations between Ankara and Moscow can play a definite role in the resolution of conflicts in the region. But while Turkish-Russian ties develop in economic spheres, political relations between these countries remain at a standstill and have no impact on regional processes. Turkey and Russia have not settled their political differences, which is why the problems between them still remain.
However, despite the great role of Russia in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict, its approach to this issue does not correspond to the approach of Azerbaijan and Turkey.
Secondly, after the conflict between Georgia and Russia, Turkey, alongside the United States, has supported Georgia. In this respect, Turkish-Russian relations are not cloudless at all, because relations between Georgia and Russia are still problematic.
Naturally, the development of Turkish-Russian relations would help to achieve peace and stability in the Caucasus. However, unfortunately, Turkish-Russian relations are currently not in a place that allows for hope for their rapprochement in the near future.
Q: How likely is the resumption of hostilities between Azerbaijan and Armenia at this stage of the Karabakh conflict resolution?
A: A war is not considered realistic under normal circumstances in the region. But, frankly, it should be noted that wars sometimes cannot be a continuation of the foreign policy of states. A war in some cases may aim to solve the internal problems of a country. One can speak about possible war only when one of the parties feels the need to start one itself. For example, the first Chechen war ended the presidency of Boris Yeltsin while the second Chechen war strengthened Putin. Thus, indirectly, wars are not merely a continuation of foreign policy. In the event of renewed war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, it will be linked to domestic politics in these countries.
Q: President Serzh Sargsyan said recently that his generation "liberated" Nagorno-Karabakh, and future generations should "return" "historic" Armenian lands in Turkey. What are your comments on this?
A: Serzh Sargsyan’s statement is related to domestic politics in Armenia. If you ask Sargsyan about this in a different situation, he would not repeat his statement. True, Sargsyan will not ask forgiveness from Turkey, but will try to make excuses for his words.
Politicians make strident statements for domestic consumption in order to achieve goals at home. However, this statement may not become Armenian policy in future, because we are talking about a region, namely, the Turkish area of Agri, where there is no single Armenian. Apparently, Armenia wants to use this statement to spoil relations with Turkey even more, although Turkey is the only way to obtain oxygen for the livelihood of impoverished Armenia.
It should also be noted that Armenia creates problems for Turkey through its diaspora in the US and Europe. However, Armenia is a small country for Turkey and Armenia will suffer more substantial losses in the event of the further deterioration of relations between them. Therefore, I think Sargsyan’s statement is ungrounded and he will not admit to his own words later.
Lala B.
News.Az
| < Prev | Next > |
|---|
