Interview with Farhad Mehdiyev, political scientist and chair of international law at the Caucasus (Kavkaz) University.
Q: What are the prospects for a Karabakh settlement with the current active mediation of Russia?
A: Russia is striving to settle this issue in a way that is as favourable as possible to itself and Armenia, but not Azerbaijan. Russia is really seeking settlement of this problem as it is aware that time is working against Armenia, rather than us. The situation in Armenia is sad, the country’s isolation has deepened with the crisis in Russian-Georgian relations, which is why communications have been cut between Russia and Armenia.
On the other hand, though Russia is waving its fist, warning the parties in the Karabakh conflict against thinking of war and reminding them about the results of the Georgian-Russian war, the fact is that Moscow, using the fact of its military presence in Armenia, wants to settle the conflict on terms favourable to itself and Yerevan. Currently, Moscow has a plan, which it is proposing to the conflict parties. Under this plan, Russian forces are deployed as peacekeeping troops in the conflict area. Certainly, they do not guarantee the inviolability of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan or ensure status within Azerbaijan.
Q: How? What does this plan envisage?
A: Along with deployment of Russian troops in the conflict area, this Russian option also envisages the return of five of the occupied districts to Azerbaijan and the determination of the status of Nagorno-Karabakh in future. It means turning Nagorno- Karabakh into Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Is it advantageous to us? Clearly not.
It is unclear what will happen in Armenia in a couple of years, since the country is hit by economic crisis, leading to a decrease in population, which is why Russia is hurrying to reach a settlement. Nonetheless, Russia may also be hit by a new, upcoming crisis.
Meanwhile, our position is clear: we are not going to give up an inch of our land and will provide the highest autonomy to Nagorno-Karabakh. And we do not want the deployment of any peacekeeping troops there. Preference is primarily given to countries that do not border on Azerbaijan and Armenia (this automatically excludes Russia) and who will be equipped with smaller weapons, rather than tanks and other hardware. But neither Armenia nor Russia would risk it. I don’t think that the Azerbaijani leadership will accept the Russian provisions.
Q: Moscow must be aware of this, so what is the reason for Russia’s ongoing mediation efforts?
A: It still hopes that it will implement its plan. Everybody knows that if Russia had supported us, Armenia would have liberated our lands in a week. Armenia stays on its feet thanks to the support of Russia.
Medvedev realizes that today it would be more profitable for Armenia to solve the Karabakh problem, than to solve it, let’s say, in two years' time, when conditions in Armenia will be even worse than now. On the other hand, Azerbaijan will be stronger. Armenia has relatively normal relations only with Iran. The main factor is the poor Georgian-Russian relations, as a result of which Russia has problems, in particular, with the transfer of heavy equipment to Armenia.
Q: Will the recent aggressive statement by the Armenian president against Azerbaijan and Turkey, which included claims on their land, make interaction between Baku and Ankara more effective and make Turkey think seriously about whether it is worth normalizing relations with Armenia, which makes open claims on Turkish land?
A: Yes, this statement should not simply make Turkey more interested in resolving the Karabakh conflict, but open its eyes to today's Armenia, how that country's leaders live and clarify whether they are sincere in their intentions to normalize relations with Turkey. A statement by the Armenian president clearly shows that Armenia still has territorial claims on neighbouring states, dreaming of the idea of "Greater Armenia". Turkey should make a more sober assessment of the situation in the region.
Q: With this in mind, is there hope of a speedy resolution to the Karabakh conflict by peaceful means?
A: There is always a prospect. But the proverb "If you want peace, prepare for war" still holds true. And Azerbaijan should be guided by these principles. That is, it should arm itself, should prepare for war, and this will be our guarantee that our opponents will accept the terms that we want. It is clear that there is a need to compromise and we will need to agree on something, but it should be acceptable to us.
So, I think that there are chances for a peaceful settlement, but you need a strong arm to achieve them without launching missiles anywhere.
F.H.
News.Az
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