The Second Protocol concerns the development of relations between the two countries and defines on which fields the cooperation will took place. To this protocol a timetable is attached showing the time of implementation of the elements of the protocol.

Since Karabakh is not a bilateral problem between Turkey and Armenia, the issue was not included in either of the protocols. However, Karabakh problem exists in the background as Turkey promised Azerbaijan that unless this problem is solved, Turkey would not normalize its relations and open its border with Armenia. Therefore it seems that the implementation of the protocols would depend on developments of the Karabakh issue.

The entry into force of the protocols will take place according to some timetables. Among them political consultations that will last six weeks are rather important as end of this time protocols will be signed. The six-week period coincides to the Turkey-Armenia football match that will take place on 14th of October. Therefore, one can assume that these protocols would be signed during or same days earlier or later of President Sarkisian’s visit to Turkey, who would have no more excuses for not making this visit.

Afterwards, the protocols will be presented to the parliaments for ratification. In our view, to fulfill the promise to Azerbaijan TGNA’s ratification will take place only after a solution of the Karabakh problem is founded or at least Armenia and Azerbaijan would be seriously engaged for the achievement of a lasting peace process.

After the parliaments ratification the protocols will come into effect on the first day of the first month following the exchange of the ratification documents.

Opening of borders –an issue of utmost importance for the Armenian side- will take place two months after the protocols become effective. Therefore even in case of the solution of Karabakh issue in this short period of time, the opening of border would only be possible after four months from now. In fact, the solution of the Karabakh issue would require more time than that, which in turn would postpone the opening of borders.

As to the advantages of these protocols for two counties, Armenia will be able to overcome its long-term isolation by establishing diplomatic relations with Turkey, the opening of borders and beginning cooperation in several fields. Since the implementation of the protocols is dependent on a solution of the Karabakh issue, relations with Azerbaijan would also improve.

Turkey for a long time has had two basic demands from Armenia. First is the recognition of its borders. Second concerns genocide claims. Turkey expects that genocide accusation ceases; at least these claims not used for political purposes and historical events be studied by scholars not by politicians.

In the protocols, it becomes clear that Turkish expectations are realized. In the protocol on “The Establishment of Diplomatic Relations between the Republic of Armenia and The Republic of Turkey”, it’s noted that the two countries confirm that the existing border mutually recognized. We consider that the borders recognition issue is resolved.

The second protocol on the development of relations indicates that the sides agree to establish “an intergovernmental bilateral commission which shall comprise separate sub-commissions”. One of the sub-commissions will deal with the “historical dimension” in order to implement “an impartial scientific examination of the historical records and archives to define existing problems and formulate recommendations.” Therefore, we conclude that Turkey’s proposal of 2005 concerning the examination of the incidents in 1915 by a group of historians and other specialists is accepted.

In conclusion, it seems that these protocols meet Turkey’s demands. On the other hand if implemented the protocols would positively contribute to peace and cooperation in the South Caucasus. On this occasion we think that we own a great deal to Turkish diplomats whose determination and efforts (not only recently but since the independence of Armenia in 1991) opened the door of the normalization of relation between the two countries.

AVIM
September 2, 2009