Interview with Stanislav Chernyavski, chief of the Center of Post-Soviet Studies under MGIMO.

Q: What do you think is the main problem in the resolution of Nagorno Karabakh conflict?

A: I would like to speak of the prehistory. In late 1993 Azeri troops started successful attack at all fronts. The attack failed in January 1994. In March Russia offered its mediatory services. An oral agreement on ceasefire was reached in Bishkek on 12 May 1994 just after Heydar Aliyev's visit to Great Britain where he expected London to support Azerbaijan. But it did not happen. The sides concluded an agreement on ceasefire that was not confirmed in any document. After it, the case was transferred to the OSCE's Minsk Group. The CIS interparliamentary assembly ceased to be a mediator and Russia ceased to be the only mediator. In the result, the talks came to a deadlock.

Q: Does it mean that today the success in negotiations depends on mutual understanding between Russia and the United States?

A: No I do not think so. Primarily, it depends on mutual understanding between the ruling elites of Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Meanwhile, Baku continues voicing dissatisfaction with the mediators' position saying ‘Agree yourself and we will support any agreement'. If the parties could agree, they would have done this without mediators. This was especially stated by chief of department of foreign ties under presidential administration Novruz Mammadov at a conference on security in the South Caucasus held in Baku.

Novruz Mammadov, whom I respect greatly, has more ground to say so. But I have no such grounds.

Q: How did last year's war in Georgia influence the Karabakh settlement: has it been a stimulus or complicated it?

It has no influence at all. I, like everyone in Russia, regret much about the conflict with Georgia. But this paradoxical situation was inevitable. On the one hand, there were too many people with Russian passports in Abkhazia and South Ossetia and Russia was responsible for them. On the other hand, attacks on peacekeepers occurred. When Georgian started to kill people, Russia had no other way out. It was obliged to take steps. Thus, Russia did not intend to attack Georgia. I am not a president but I can guarantee this. We were not going to attack.

A: Is the resumption of war in Karabakh possible?

It is difficult to say. I think the possibility of a new war is minimal, if not zero.

There is an opinion that the keys to the Karabakh conflict lie in the Kremlin.

I do not agree with this. The post-Soviet elites are so powerful now that they settle all their national, international and interstate issues independently. And no elite would make concessions contradicting to its sovereignty for the sake of any other state. This is a matter of Azerbaijanis and Armenians. I think both parties should involve their diasporas more actively. Both Diasporas are strong, they should be involved, they should realize that both countries will have economic benefits from reconciliation. Population will benefit and settlement of most social issues will be facilitated. Both countries and the whole region will benefit and it is incorrect to say that the keys to the settlement lie only in Moscow or in Washington.

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